Peter Dungan (Adjunct Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto)
Abstract
In this chapter, Peter Dungan investigates the sensitivity of Canadian government fiscal balances to alternative long-run productivity growth rates using elements of the FOCUS macroeconometric model to conduct simulations on a 'base-case' projection of the Canadian economy, and of its fiscal detail, through the year 2030. The simulation strategy employed here in part parallels the technique used by the Department of Finance in recent budgets and fiscal statements to estimate the implicit size of the 'fiscal dividend'. A total of five alternative growth paths and sensitivity tests are presented.
As Dungan points out changes in productivity growth rates can occur for a variety of reasons and can have many different possible effects on the economy. Therefore, these types of simulation exercises inevitably require a number of simplifying assumptions which must be taken into account in interpreting the results.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
(with abstract),
plain text
(with abstract),
BibTeX,
RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite),
ReDIF This chapter was published in: Andrew Sharpe, Executive Director & France St-Hilaire, Vice-President , Research & Keith Banting, Director (ed.) The Review of Economic Performance and Social Progress 2002: Towards a Social Understanding of Productivity, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, pages , 2002.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)