IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/0707.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Why the Leading Indicators Really Do Lead

In: Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition

Author

Listed:
  • Geoffrey H. Moore

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey H. Moore, 1983. "Why the Leading Indicators Really Do Lead," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, pages 339-352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:0707
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c0707.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph W. Conard, 1966. "The Behavior of Interest Rates: A Progress Report," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number cona66-1, July.
    2. Philip A. Klein, 1971. "Introduction to "The Cyclical Timing of Consumer Credit, 1920–67"," NBER Chapters, in: The Cyclical Timing of Consumer Credit, 1920–67, pages 1-3, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Phillip Cagan, 1971. "Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: Essays on Interest Rates, Volume 2, pages 3-34, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Avram Kisselgoff, 1952. "Introduction to "Factors Affecting the Demand for Consumer Instalment Sales Credit"," NBER Chapters, in: Factors Affecting the Demand for Consumer Instalment Sales Credit, pages 1-3, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Daniel Creamer & Martin Bernstein, 1956. "Personal Income during Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number crea56-1, July.
    6. Philip A. Klein, 1971. "The Cyclical Timing of Consumer Credit, 1920–67," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number klei71-1, July.
    7. Simon Kuznets & Lillian Epstein & Elizabeth Jenks, 1946. "National Income and Its Composition, 1919-1938, Volume II," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn41-3, May.
    8. Daniel Creamer & Martin Bernstein, 1956. "Introduction to "Personal Income during Business Cycles"," NBER Chapters, in: Personal Income during Business Cycles, pages 1-5, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Leo Grebler, 1960. "Housing Issues in Economic Stabilization Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greb60-1, July.
    10. Millard Hastay, 1954. "The Cyclical Behavior of Investment," NBER Chapters, in: Regularization of Business Investment, pages 1-36, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Leo Grebler, 1960. "Introduction to "Housing Issues in Economic Stabilization Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: Housing Issues in Economic Stabilization Policy, pages 1-15, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Phillip Cagan, 1966. "Introduction to "Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates"," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates, pages 1-3, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, July.
    14. Ruth P. Mack, 1956. "Consumption and Business Fluctuations: A Case Study of the Shoe, Leather, Hide Sequence," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mack56-1, July.
    15. Julius Shiskin, 1961. "Signals of Recession and Recovery: An Experiment with Monthly Reporting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number shis61-1, July.
    16. Victor Zarnowitz & Lionel J. Lerner, 1961. "Cyclical Changes in Business Failures and Corporate Profits," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages 350-385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Solomon Fabricant, 1959. "Basic Facts on Productivity Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fabr59-1, July.
    18. Gottfried Haberler, 1942. "Consumer Instalment Credit and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number habe42-1, July.
    19. W. Braddock Hickman, 1953. "The Volume of Corporate Bond Financing Since 1900," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hick53-1, July.
    20. Geoffrey H. Moore & Julius Shiskin, 1967. "Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor67-2, July.
    21. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. John Maurice Clark, 1934. "Strategic Factors in Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clar34-1, July.
    23. Frederick R. Macaulay, 1938. "Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movements of Interest Rates, Bond Yields and Stock Prices in the United States since 1856," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number maca38-1, July.
    24. Avram Kisselgoff, 1952. "Factors Affecting the Demand for Instalment Sales Credit," NBER Chapters, in: Factors Affecting the Demand for Consumer Instalment Sales Credit, pages 4-20, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Phillip Cagan, 1966. "Changes in Cyclical Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates, pages 3-11, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Avram Kisselgoff, 1952. "Factors Affecting the Demand for Consumer Instalment Sales Credit," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kiss52-1, July.
    27. Thomas M. Stanback, Jr., 1962. "Postwar Cycles in Manufacturers' Inventories," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stan62-1, July.
    28. Gerhard Bry, 1959. "The Average Workweek as an Economic Indicator," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_59-1, July.
    29. Oskar Morgenstern, 1959. "International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number morg59-1, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Sargent, 1971. "Expectations at the Short End of the Yield Curve: An Application of Macaulay's Test," NBER Chapters, in: Essays on Interest Rates, Volume 2, pages 391-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1986. "Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 519-582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Solomon Fabricant, 1972. "Recent Economic Changes and the Agenda of Business Cycle Research," NBER Chapters, in: Supplement to NBER Report Eight, pages 1-33, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Solomon Fabricant, 1971. "Recent Economic Changes and the Agenda of Business-Cycle Research," NBER Chapters, in: Supplement to NBER Report Eight, pages 1-33, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. John Lintner, 1972. "Finance and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Research. Retrospect and Prospect: Finance and Capital Markets, Fiftieth Anniversary Colloquium II, pages 1-53, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. John Lintner, 1972. "Finance and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect, Volume 2, Finance and Capital Markets, pages 1-53, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1983. "Security Markets and Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, pages 139-160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Sung-Jin Cho & John Rust, 2015. "Precommitments for Financial Self-Control:Evidence from Credit Card Borrowing," 2015 Meeting Papers 33, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Maximiliano Gómez Aguirre & Ariel David Krysa, 2023. "Consumer Loans Dynamics in 2020 in Argentina: An Approach Using Error Correction Models," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(81), pages 111-158, May.
    10. Jiří Schwarz, 2005. "The Economic history and the economics [Hospodářské dějiny a ekonomie]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(3), pages 152-162.
    11. Duo Qin, 2010. "Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 669, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. M. A. Akhtar, 1995. "Monetary Policy And Long‐Term Interest Rates: A Survey Of Empirical Literature," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 110-130, July.
    13. Maximiliano Gomez Aguirre & Ariel Krysa, 2022. "Consumer Loans Dynamics in 2020 in Argentina: An Approach Using Error Correction Models," BCRA Working Paper Series 202298, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    14. Jacob A. Mincer, 1969. "Models of Adaptive Forecasting," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 83-111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Simon Bilo, 2018. "Lucas and Hume on Monetary Non-neutrality: A Tension between the Logic and the Technique of Economics," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 364-380, June.
    16. Bunting, David, 2009. "The saving decline: Macro-facts, micro-behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 282-295, May.
    17. Jonathan Gruber & Aaron Yelowitz, 1999. "Public Health Insurance and Private Savings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(6), pages 1249-1274, December.
    18. Lang, Harald, 1987. "Herman Wold on Optimal Properties of Exponentially Weighted Forecasts," Working Paper Series 179, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    19. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Günther, Jutta & Loose, Brigitte & Ludwig, Udo & Nulsch, Nicole, 2015. "Can R&D subsidies counteract the economic crisis? – Macroeconomic effects in Germany," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 623-633.
    20. Alok Bhargava, 2006. "Modelling the Health of Filipino Children," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Econometrics, Statistics And Computational Approaches In Food And Health Sciences, chapter 11, pages 153-168, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:0707. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.