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Dynamics of protest and electoral politics in the Great Recession

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  • Bremer, Björn
  • Hutter, Swen
  • Kriesi, Hanspeter

Abstract

This article links the consequences of the Great Recession on protest and electoral politics. It innovates by combining the literature on economic voting with social movement research and by presenting the first integrated, large-scale empirical analysis of protest mobilisation and electoral outcomes in Europe. The economic voting literature offers important insights on how and under what conditions economic crises play out in the short-run. However, it tends to ignore the closely connected dynamics of opposition in the two arenas and the role of protests in politicising economic grievances. More specifically, it is argued that economic protests act as a ‘signalling mechanism’ by attributing blame to decision makers and by highlighting the political dimension of deteriorating economic conditions. Ultimately, massive protest mobilisation should, thus, amplify the impact of economic hardship on the electoral losses of incumbents and mainstream parties more generally. The empirical analysis to study this relationship relies on an original semi-automated protest event dataset combined with an updated dataset of electoral outcomes in 30 European countries from 2000 to 2015. The results indicate that the dynamics of economic protests and electoral punishment are closely related and point to a destabilisation of European party systems during the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Bremer, Björn & Hutter, Swen & Kriesi, Hanspeter, 2020. "Dynamics of protest and electoral politics in the Great Recession," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 59(4), pages 842-866.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:214631
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-6765.12375
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kayser, Mark Andreas & Peress, Michael, 2012. "Benchmarking across Borders: Electoral Accountability and the Necessity of Comparison," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 661-684, August.
    2. Lohmann, Susanne, 1993. "A Signaling Model of Informative and Manipulative Political Action," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 319-333, June.
    3. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521707404.
    4. Brambor, Thomas & Clark, William Roberts & Golder, Matt, 2006. "Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 63-82, January.
    5. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521881029.
    6. Daniel Q. Gillion & Sarah A. Soule, 2018. "The Impact of Protest on Elections in the United States," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1649-1664, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucio Baccaro & Björn Bremer & Erik Neimanns, 2021. "Till austerity do us part? A survey experiment on support for the euro in Italy," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(3), pages 401-423, September.
    2. Michele Battisti & Ilpo Kauppinen & Britta Rude, 2022. "Twitter and Crime: The Effect of Social Movements on GenderBased Violence," ifo Working Paper Series 381, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Weisskircher, Manès & Hutter, Swen & Borbáth, Endre, 2022. "Protest and Electoral Breakthrough: Challenger Party-Movement Interactions in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue (Latest A, pages 1-1.
    4. Robert Csehi & Daniel F. Schulz, 2022. "The EU's New Economic Governance Framework and Budgetary Decision‐Making in the Member States: Boon or Bane for Throughput Legitimacy?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 118-135, January.
    5. Wang, Chendi, 2023. "The Streets Speak: Unravelling the Impact of Austerity on Public Protests during the the Great Recession," OSF Preprints 93tz4, Center for Open Science.
    6. Borbáth, Endre & Hutter, Swen & Leininger, Arndt, 2023. "Cleavage politics, polarisation and participation in Western Europe," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 631-651.

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