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Electricity Prices: A Nonparametric Approach

Author

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  • DAVIDE PIRINO

    (Dipartimento di fisica "Enrico Fermi", Università di Pisa, Italy)

  • ROBERTO RENÒ

    (Dipartimento di Economia Politica, Università di Siena, Piazza S. Francesco 7, 53100 Siena, Italy)

Abstract

We propose a simple univariate model for the dynamics of spot electricity prices. The model is nonparametric in the sense that it is free from parametric model assumptions and flexible in capturing the dynamics of the data. The estimation is performed in two steps. Preliminarily, spikes are identified by means of an iterative filtering technique. The series of spikes is used to estimate a seasonal spike intensity function and fitted with an exponential law. We then implement Nadaraya-Watson estimators for the drift and the diffusion coefficients on the filtered series. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate estimation errors.We fit the model on European and American time series of spot day-ahead electricity prices; in spite of the simplicity of the proposed model, our specification tests indicate successful goodness-of-fit. We provide evidence for mean-reversion, nonlinear volatility and seasonal spike intensity; moreover we find that American markets show a very low level of mean reversion and a lower volatility with respect to their European counterparts.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Pirino & Roberto Renò, 2010. "Electricity Prices: A Nonparametric Approach," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 285-299.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:13:y:2010:i:02:n:s0219024910005772
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024910005772
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Serati, Massimiliano & Manera, Matteo & Plotegher, Michele, 2008. "Modeling Electricity Prices: From the State of the Art to a Draft of a New Proposal," International Energy Markets Working Papers 44426, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Corsi, Fulvio & Pirino, Davide & Renò, Roberto, 2010. "Threshold bipower variation and the impact of jumps on volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 276-288, December.
    3. Angelica Gianfreda, 2010. "Volatility and Volume Effects in European Electricity Spot Markets," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 39(s1), pages 47-63, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angelica Gianfreda, 2010. "Volatility and Volume Effects in European Electricity Spot Markets," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 39(1‐2), pages 47-63, February.
    2. Zheng Xu, 2016. "An alternative circular smoothing method to nonparametric estimation of periodic functions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(9), pages 1649-1672, July.
    3. Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2014. "Component estimation for electricity prices: Procedures and comparisons," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 143-159.

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