IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/afexxx/v11y2016i03ns2010495216500135.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market Risk Of Investment In Us Subprime Crisis: Comparison Of A Pure Diffusion And A Pure Jump Model

Author

Listed:
  • SHARIF MOZUMDER

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh)

  • ARAFATUR RAHMAN

    (#x2020;Institute of Natural Sciences, United International University, Dhanmondi, Dhaka 1209, Bangladesh)

Abstract

We consider the oldest financial model to estimate the market risk of investment underlying the world indexes and compare its risk management features with those of a newer model. Our concern is the risk underlying the world indexes in the recent US subprime crisis period. We illustrate how the recent variance gamma (VG) pure jump model is comparable with one of the earliest pure diffusion (Bachelier (BC)) model in estimating investment risk in financial markets using the tail risk measure value-at-risk (VaR) and its coherent version expected shortfall (ES). We observe that for pure jump VG model single quantile VaR is consistently a better performer across indexes; however for tail average risk measure ES, VG is not a consistently better performer; pure diffusion Bachelier model gives ES estimates which are often — not always — better than VG. This provides one more empirical indication that the combination of diffusion and jump is likely to be more effective in turbulent times, e.g., in US subprime crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Sharif Mozumder & Arafatur Rahman, 2016. "Market Risk Of Investment In Us Subprime Crisis: Comparison Of A Pure Diffusion And A Pure Jump Model," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(03), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:afexxx:v:11:y:2016:i:03:n:s2010495216500135
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010495216500135
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010495216500135
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S2010495216500135?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
    2. Allen, David E. & Singh, Abhay K. & Powell, Robert J., 2013. "EVT and tail-risk modelling: Evidence from market indices and volatility series," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 355-369.
    3. S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
    4. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & McAleer, Michael, 2015. "Advances in financial risk management and economic policy uncertainty: An overview," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-7.
    5. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Extreme spectral risk measures: An application to futures clearinghouse margin requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3469-3485, December.
    6. Colletaz, Gilbert & Hurlin, Christophe & Pérignon, Christophe, 2013. "The Risk Map: A new tool for validating risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3843-3854.
    7. Chia-Lin Chang & Allen, David & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Recent developments in financial economics and econometrics: An overview," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 217-226.
    8. Wang, Ching-Ping & Huang, Hung-Hsi, 2016. "Optimal insurance contract under VaR and CVaR constraints," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 110-127.
    9. Göncü, Ahmet & Yang, Hao, 2016. "Variance-Gamma and Normal-Inverse Gaussian models: Goodness-of-fit to Chinese high-frequency index returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 279-292.
    10. Engle, Robert F. & Manganelli, Simone, 2001. "Value at risk models in finance," Working Paper Series 75, European Central Bank.
    11. Geman, Helyette, 2002. "Pure jump Levy processes for asset price modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1297-1316, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saralees Nadarajah & Bo Zhang & Stephen Chan, 2014. "Estimation methods for expected shortfall," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 271-291, February.
    2. Khaled Salhi, 2017. "Pricing European options and risk measurement under exponential Lévy models — a practical guide," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02n03), pages 1-36, June.
    3. Jean-Philippe Aguilar, 2021. "The value of power-related options under spectrally negative Lévy processes," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 173-196, July.
    4. Jean-Philippe Aguilar, 2019. "The value of power-related options under spectrally negative L\'evy processes," Papers 1910.07971, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    5. Jose Cruz & Daniel Sevcovic, 2020. "On solutions of a partial integro-differential equation in Bessel potential spaces with applications in option pricing models," Papers 2003.03851, arXiv.org.
    6. Yongxin Yang & Yu Zheng & Timothy M. Hospedales, 2016. "Gated Neural Networks for Option Pricing: Rationality by Design," Papers 1609.07472, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    7. Zura Kakushadze, 2016. "Volatility Smile as Relativistic Effect," Papers 1610.02456, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2017.
    8. N. Hilber & N. Reich & C. Schwab & C. Winter, 2009. "Numerical methods for Lévy processes," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 471-500, September.
    9. Kirkby, J. Lars & Nguyen, Duy, 2021. "Equity-linked Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits with dollar cost averaging," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 408-428.
    10. Oliver X. Li & Weiping Li, 2015. "Hedging jump risk, expected returns and risk premia in jump-diffusion economies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 873-888, May.
    11. Fang, Fang & Oosterlee, Kees, 2008. "Pricing Early-Exercise and Discrete Barrier Options by Fourier-Cosine Series Expansions," MPRA Paper 9248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Boucher, Christophe M. & Daníelsson, Jón & Kouontchou, Patrick S. & Maillet, Bertrand B., 2014. "Risk models-at-risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 72-92.
    13. Ron Chan & Simon Hubbert, 2014. "Options pricing under the one-dimensional jump-diffusion model using the radial basis function interpolation scheme," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 161-189, July.
    14. Buckley, Winston & Long, Hongwei & Marshall, Mario, 2016. "Numerical approximations of optimal portfolios in mispriced asymmetric Lévy markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(2), pages 676-686.
    15. Jose Cruz & Maria Grossinho & Daniel Sevcovic & Cyril Izuchukwu Udeani, 2022. "Linear and Nonlinear Partial Integro-Differential Equations arising from Finance," Papers 2207.11568, arXiv.org.
    16. Lemmens, D. & Liang, L.Z.J. & Tempere, J. & De Schepper, A., 2010. "Pricing bounds for discrete arithmetic Asian options under Lévy models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(22), pages 5193-5207.
    17. Ascione, Giacomo & Mehrdoust, Farshid & Orlando, Giuseppe & Samimi, Oldouz, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Options on Heston-CIR Model Under Lévy Process Framework," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 446(C).
    18. Walter Farkas & Ludovic Mathys & Nikola Vasiljević, 2021. "Intra‐Horizon expected shortfall and risk structure in models with jumps," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 772-823, April.
    19. Xun Li & Ping Lin & Xue-Cheng Tai & Jinghui Zhou, 2015. "Pricing Two-asset Options under Exponential L\'evy Model Using a Finite Element Method," Papers 1511.04950, arXiv.org.
    20. Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Gajdka, Jerzy & Kutan, Ali M., 2015. "Investor response to public news, sentiment and institutional trading in emerging markets: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-352.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:afexxx:v:11:y:2016:i:03:n:s2010495216500135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/afe/afe.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.