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Insights into Flood‐Coping Appraisals of Protection Motivation Theory: Empirical Evidence from Germany and France

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  • Philip Bubeck
  • W. J. Wouter Botzen
  • Jonas Laudan
  • Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts
  • Annegret H. Thieken

Abstract

Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk‐reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals’ coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood‐coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision‐making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood‐prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood‐coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood‐coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood‐coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood‐preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood‐coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects.

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  • Philip Bubeck & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Jonas Laudan & Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts & Annegret H. Thieken, 2018. "Insights into Flood‐Coping Appraisals of Protection Motivation Theory: Empirical Evidence from Germany and France," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(6), pages 1239-1257, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:6:p:1239-1257
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12938
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter John Robinson & W. J. Wouter Botzen, 2022. "Setting descriptive norm nudges to promote demand for insurance against increasing climate change risk," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(1), pages 27-49, January.
    2. Sebastian Seebauer & Philipp Babcicky, 2020. "The Sources of Belief in Personal Capability: Antecedents of Self‐Efficacy in Private Adaptation to Flood Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(10), pages 1967-1982, October.
    3. Zeynep Altinay & Eric Rittmeyer & Lauren L. Morris & Margaret A. Reams, 2021. "Public risk salience of sea level rise in Louisiana, United States," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(4), pages 523-536, December.
    4. Binh, Phung Thanh & Zhu, Xueqin & Groeneveld, Rolf A. & van Ierland, Ekko C., 2020. "Risk communication, women’s participation and flood mitigation in Vietnam: An experimental study," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. Nora Louise Schwaller & Todd K. BenDor, 2021. "Differential residential perspectives on in situ protection and retreat as strategies for climate adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-21, August.
    6. Katherine M. Crosman & Ann Bostrom & Adam L. Hayes, 2019. "Efficacy Foundations for Risk Communication: How People Think About Reducing the Risks of Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(10), pages 2329-2347, October.
    7. Emily J. Kothe & Mathew Ling & Barbara A. Mullan & Joshua J. Rhee & Anna Klas, 2023. "Increasing intention to reduce fossil fuel use: a protection motivation theory-based experimental study," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Lilian Kojan & Laura Burbach & Martina Ziefle & André Calero Valdez, 2022. "Perceptions of behaviour efficacy, not perceptions of threat, are drivers of COVID-19 protective behaviour in Germany," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.

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