The Impact of Felony Diversion in San Francisco

In the traditional criminal justice system, an arrest is followed by multiple decision points determining detention, prosecution, guilt, and sentence. Many jurisdictions across the U.S. are exploring alternative programs and approaches that consider individual needs and assessed risks at each decision point. San Francisco County, California, uses post‐filing pretrial diversion programs as alternatives to the traditional criminal justice system for defendants based on factors including social and behavioral needs. In this paper, we estimate the impact of a referral to felony pretrial diversion programs on case outcomes and subsequent criminal justice contact. To address selection bias associated with nonrandom assignment into diversion programs, we exploit the random assignment of felony cases to arraignment judges and use variation among judicial diversion referral rates as an instrument for the diversion referral. We find that a referral to diversion increases the time to disposition in the current case and decreases the probability of a subsequent conviction up to five years following case arraignment. Subgroup analyses find that the benefits of diversion are concentrated among females, those who are under the age of 25, and those facing drug sales charges.