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Return and Volatility Dynamics in the Spot and Futures Markets in Australia: An Intervention Analysis in a Bivariate EGARCH‐X Framework

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  • Ramaprasad Bhar

Abstract

This article provides evidence of linkages between the equity market and the index futures market in Australia, where the futures market has experienced a major structural event due to the futures contract respecification. A bivariate Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model is developed that includes a cointegrating residual as an explanatory variable for both the conditional mean and the conditional variance. The conditional mean returns from both markets are influenced by the long‐run equilibrium relationship, and these markets are informationally linked through the second moments. The crossmarket spillovers exhibit asymmetric behavior in that the volatility responses to past standardized innovations are different for market advances and market retreats. An intervention analysis shows that some of the parameters describing the return‐generating process have shifted after the contract respecification by the futures exchange. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:833–850, 2001

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  • Ramaprasad Bhar, 2001. "Return and Volatility Dynamics in the Spot and Futures Markets in Australia: An Intervention Analysis in a Bivariate EGARCH‐X Framework," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(9), pages 833-850, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:21:y:2001:i:9:p:833-850
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    Cited by:

    1. Amarnath Mitra & Vishwanathan Iyer, 2017. "Transmission of Volatility across Asia-Pacific Stock Markets: Is There a Pattern?," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 6(1), pages 42-54, January.
    2. Neda Todorova & Michael Soucek & Eduardo Roca, 2015. "Volatility spillovers from international commodity markets to the Australian equity market," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201505, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    3. Wen-Hsiu Kuo & Hsinan Hsu & Min-Hsien Chiang, 2008. "Foreign investment, regulation, volatility spillovers between the futures and spot markets: evidence from Taiwan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 421-430.
    4. Hou, Yang (Greg) & Li, Steven, 2020. "Volatility and skewness spillover between stock index and stock index futures markets during a crash period: New evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 166-188.
    5. Chi-Lu Peng & Chi-Fu Chung & Chin-Chang Tsai & Cheng-Te Wang, 2017. "Exploring the Returns and Volatility Spillover Effect in Taiwan and Japan Stock Markets," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 175-187, February.
    6. Bozic, Marin, 2011. "Three essays in commodity futures and options price performance," Faculty and Alumni Dissertations 160678, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    7. Ho, Anson T.Y. & Morin, Lealand & Paarsch, Harry J. & Huynh, Kim P., 2022. "A flexible framework for intervention analysis applied to credit-card usage during the coronavirus pandemic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1129-1157.
    8. Ten-Der Jane & Cherng Ding, 2009. "On the multivariate EGARCH model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1757-1761.
    9. Andrew Worthington & Abbas Valadkhani, 2004. "Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: an empirical application using intervention analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2177-2186.
    10. Ismail bin Ahmad & Fahmi bin Abdul Rahim, 2009. "International price relationship and volatility transmission between stock index and stock index futures," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 1(1), pages 61-75, April.

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