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Identifying the Factors that Affect Interest‐Rate Swap Spreads: Some Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom

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  • Ilias Lekkos
  • Costas Milas

Abstract

We assess the ability of the factors proposed in previous research to account for the stochastic evolution of the term structure of the U.S. and U.K. swap spreads. Using as factor proxies the level, volatility, and slope of the zero‐coupon government yield curve as well as the Treasury‐bill—London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) spread and the corporate bond spread, we identify a procyclical behavior for the short‐maturity U.S. swap spreads and a countercyclical behavior for longer maturity U.S. swap spreads. Liquidity and corporate bond spreads are also significant, but their importance varies with maturity. The liquidity premium is more important for short‐maturity swap spreads, although the corporate bond spread affects long‐maturity swap spreads. For the United Kingdom, swap spreads are countercyclical across maturities. In addition, we find that shocks to the liquidity premium are more significant for long‐maturity swaps and that the links between corporate bond markets and swap markets are much stronger than in the United States. When we look at the links between U.S. and U.K. swap markets, we identify a significant influence of the U.S. factors on the U.K. swap spreads across maturities. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:737–768, 2001

Suggested Citation

  • Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas, 2001. "Identifying the Factors that Affect Interest‐Rate Swap Spreads: Some Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 737-768, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:21:y:2001:i:8:p:737-768
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    1. Benbouzid, Nadia & Leonida, Leone & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2018. "The non-monotonic impact of bank size on their default swap spreads: Cross-country evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
    2. Li, Shaoyu & Zhu, Chunhui & Shang, Yuhuang, 2023. "Hedging demand and near-zero swap spreads: Evidence from the Chinese interest rate swap market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 170-185.
    3. Piotr Płuciennik, 2012. "The Impact of the World Financial Crisis on the Polish Interbank Market: A Swap Spread Approach," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 269-288, December.
    4. Francis In & Sangbae Kim, 2012. "An Introduction to Wavelet Theory in Finance:A Wavelet Multiscale Approach," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8431, December.
    5. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "On the predictability of common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets: Evidence from non-linear and linear models," Discussion Paper Series 2005_9, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2005.
    6. Schröder, Thomas & Dunbar, Kwamie, 2011. "Effectively hedging the interest rate risk of wide floating-rate coupon spreads," Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 4(2), pages 162-179, March.
    7. Junji Shimada & Toyoharu Takahashi & Tatsuyoshi Miyakoshi & Yoshihiko Tsukuda, 2010. "Japanese Interest Rate Swap Pricing," TERG Discussion Papers 253, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    8. Takayasu Ito, 2010. "Global financial crisis and US interest rate swap spreads," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 37-43.
    9. Tanweer Akram & Khawaja Mamun, 2022. "A GARCH Approach to Modeling Chilean Long-Term Swap Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_1008, Levy Economics Institute.
    10. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2007. "Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: evidence from linear and non-linear models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 601-619.
    11. Benbouzid, Nadia & Kumar, Abhishek & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Stojanovic, Aleksandar, 2022. "Bank credit risk and macro-prudential policies: Role of counter-cyclical capital buffer," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Kenneth A. Tah, 2022. "Determinants of Interest rate swap spreads: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 522-534, July.
    13. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Batten, Jonathan A. & Fang, Victor, 2015. "What determines the yen swap spread?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Do country-level financial structures explain bank-level CDS spreads?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 135-145.
    15. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta & Pilbeam, Keith, 2018. "The housing market and the credit default swap premium in the UK banking sector: A VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-15.
    16. Ying Huang & Carl R. Chen, 2007. "The effect of Fed monetary policy regimes on the US interest rate swap spreads," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 375-399.
    17. Sohel Azad, A.S.M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Fang, Victor & Wickramanayake, Jayasinghe, 2015. "International swap market contagion and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 355-371.
    18. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Determinants of bank credit default swap spreads: The role of the housing sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 243-259.

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