IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ijfiec/v28y2023i1p187-192.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing to extreme: An application of reverse stress testing engineering on mortgages of commercial banks in China

Author

Listed:
  • Chang Liu
  • Lin Tang
  • Dongtao Lin
  • Jiayi Guo

Abstract

The real estate market has been booming in China for the past 10 years. Highly leveraged on banks' credit, it has aroused regulators' attention because of the potential catastrophic consequence, and it may produce on the whole financial system if the housing price boom bursts and massive defaults on mortgages occur. In this article, reverse stress testing engineering has been employed to study the factors impacting significantly on the mortgages' defaults and their implicit transition mechanism under different simulated scenarios. This work, which produces more precise snapshots of the financial institutes' risk tolerances by pushing the risk factors to their limits, could be used by regulators for formulating housing price control policies and by banking management for implementing the credit default risk warning system.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang Liu & Lin Tang & Dongtao Lin & Jiayi Guo, 2023. "Testing to extreme: An application of reverse stress testing engineering on mortgages of commercial banks in China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 187-192, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:28:y:2023:i:1:p:187-192
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2414
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2414
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ijfe.2414?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Grundke & Kamil Pliszka, 2018. "A macroeconomic reverse stress test," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1093-1130, May.
    2. Dent, Kieran & Westwood, Ben & Segoviano, Miguel, 2016. "Stress testing of banks: an introduction," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 56(3), pages 130-143.
    3. Wiszniowski, Edward, 2010. "Stress testing as a tool for simulating the effects of crisis in banks," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 1(1), pages 1-9, April.
    4. Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Mr. Giovanni Majnoni & Mr. Matthew T Jones & Mr. Winfrid Blaschke, 2001. "Stress Testing of Financial Systems: An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences," IMF Working Papers 2001/088, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jim Wong & Ka-Fai Choi & Tom Pak-Wing Fong, 2008. "A Framework for Stress Testing Banks’ Credit Risk," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Hans Genberg & Cho-Hoi Hui (ed.), The Banking Sector in Hong Kong, chapter 11, pages 240-260, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Andreas Jobst & Nobuyasu Sugimoto & Timo Broszeit, 2014. "Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing of the Insurance Sector," IMF Working Papers 2014/133, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Grigat, Daniel & Caccioli, Fabio, 2017. "Reverse stress testing interbank networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86746, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Edward Wiszniowski, 2010. "Stress testing as a tool for simulating the effects of crisis in banks," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 1(1), pages 58-66, April.
    9. Daniel Grigat & Fabio Caccioli, 2017. "Reverse stress testing interbank networks," Papers 1702.08744, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
    10. Mr. Rupert D Worrell, 2008. "Stressing to Breaking Point: Interpreting Stress Test Results," IMF Working Papers 2008/148, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mr. Dimitri G Demekas, 2015. "Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2015/146, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramadiah, Amanah & Fricke, Daniel & Caccioli, Fabio, 2022. "Backtesting macroprudential stress tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2018. "System-wide implications of funding risk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 1151-1181.
    3. Zineddine Alla & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Qiaoluan H. Li & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2018. "Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses," IMF Working Papers 2018/049, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Dent, Kieran & Westwood, Ben & Segoviano, Miguel, 2016. "Stress testing of banks: an introduction," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 56(3), pages 130-143.
    5. Pierluigi Bologna & Anatoli Segura, 2017. "Integrating Stress Tests within the Basel III Capital Framework: A Macroprudentially Coherent Approach," Journal of Financial Regulation, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 159-186.
    6. Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Fiche, Marcelo Estrela & Braz, Tércio, 2021. "Citation likelihood analysis of the interbank financial networks literature: A machine learning and bibliometric approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 562(C).
    7. Aikman, David & Haldane, Andrew & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Kapadia, Sujit, 2018. "Rethinking financial stability," Bank of England working papers 712, Bank of England.
    8. Dua, Pami & Kapur, Hema, 2018. "Macro stress testing and resilience assessment of Indian banking," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 452-475.
    9. Pliszka, Kamil, 2021. "System-wide and banks' internal stress tests: Regulatory requirements and literature review," Discussion Papers 19/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Alla, Zineddine & Espinoza, Raphael & Li, Helen & Segoviano, Miguel, 2018. "Macroprudential stress tests: a reduced-form approach to quantifying systemic risk losses," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118930, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Morell, Joe & Rice, Jonathan & Shaw, Frances, 2022. "A Framework for Macroprudential Stress Testing," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    12. Manning, Matthew, 2016. "Markets and operations: 2016 Q3," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 56(3), pages 146-154.
    13. Ahn, Dohyun & Kim, Kyoung-Kuk & Kwon, Eunji, 2023. "Multivariate stress scenario selection in interbank networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    14. Fabien Clive Ntonga Efoua & Etienne Inédit Blaise Tsomb Tsomb, 2023. "Stress Testing the Foreign Exchange Reserves Dynamics in CEMAC [Stress tests sur la dynamique des réserves de change de la CEMAC]," Post-Print hal-04105577, HAL.
    15. Grigori Fainstein & Igor Novikov, 2011. "The Comparative Analysis of Credit Risk Determinants In the Banking Sector of the Baltic States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 20-45, June.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Abdelaziz Rouabah & John Theal, 2010. "Stress testing: The impact of shocks on the capital needs of the Luxembourg banking sector," BCL working papers 47, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    18. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2002:i:3:b:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Antonella Foglia, 2009. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Survey of Authorities' Aproaches," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 9-45, September.
    20. Dodi Permana, 2017. "Toward the Best Model of Strategy Implementation in Indonesian Islamic Banking from the Lens of Strategic Clarity," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 3-15.
    21. Stijn Ferrari & Patrick Van Roy & Cristina Vespro, 2011. "Stress testing credit risk: modelling issues," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 9(1), pages 105-120, June.
    22. Claudio Albanese & Stéphane Crépey & Stefano Iabichino, 2023. "Quantitative reverse stress testing, bottom up," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 863-875, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:28:y:2023:i:1:p:187-192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.