IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v503y2018icp1151-1181.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

System-wide implications of funding risk

Author

Listed:
  • Hałaj, Grzegorz

Abstract

Funding risk has a systemic aspect that is frequently neglected in research and risk management applications. We build a model that focuses on systemic consequences of funding risk and its links with solvency conditions and account for pertinent interactions between market participants in an agent-based modelling fashion. The model is brought to a set of real banking system data of the stress test component of the 2014 Comprehensive Assessment in the EU, covering all the major banking groups in the EU. The potential shock amplification role of asset managers is studied in the theoretical part of the model, with some styled calibration and simulations. We investigate importance of the channels through which the funding shock hitting financial institutions can propagate across the financial system. We find that the drivers of the contagion transmission, related to available liquidity and capital buffers, sensitivities of funding cost to loss absorption capacity and asset prices to fire sales of assets depend on the heterogeneity of the agents in the financial system. Second, liquidity requirements are effective instruments to mitigate contagion risk. Third, the relationship between funding shocks and contagion losses is nonlinear and exhibits cliff effects. Fourth, we find evidence of an active cross-border channel of contagion with losses spreading from one country to another. Finally, behaviours of the agents under adverse funding conditions can influence the structure of the financial market and the topology of the interbank network under stress depends on the stringency of the regulatory requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2018. "System-wide implications of funding risk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 1151-1181.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:503:y:2018:i:c:p:1151-1181
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.08.060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437118310008
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2018.08.060?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mitchell, Mark & Pulvino, Todd, 2012. "Arbitrage crashes and the speed of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 469-490.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    3. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Elizabeth Martin & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    5. Grzegorz Hałaj & Christoffer Kok, 2013. "Assessing interbank contagion using simulated networks," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 157-186, June.
    6. Klimek, Peter & Poledna, Sebastian & Doyne Farmer, J. & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 144-154.
    7. Diane Pierret, 2015. "Systemic Risk and the Solvency-Liquidity Nexus of Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 193-227, June.
    8. Hüser, Anne-Caroline & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Kok, Christoffer & Perales, Cristian & van der Kraaij, Anton, 2018. "The systemic implications of bail-in: A multi-layered network approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 81-97.
    9. Claudia M Buch & Linda S Goldberg, 2017. "Cross-Border Prudential Policy Spillovers: How Much? How Important? Evidence from the International Banking Research Network," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 505-558, March.
    10. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    11. Miss Rita Babihuga & Marco Spaltro, 2014. "Bank Funding Costs for International Banks," IMF Working Papers 2014/071, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Jackson, Matthew O. & Wolinsky, Asher, 1996. "A Strategic Model of Social and Economic Networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 44-74, October.
    13. Bluhm, Marcel & Faia, Ester & Krahnen, Jan Pieter, 2014. "Endogenous banks' networks, cascades and systemic risk," SAFE Working Paper Series 12, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2014.
    14. Grzegorz Haᴌaj & Christoffer Kok, 2015. "Modelling the emergence of the interbank networks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 653-671, April.
    15. Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2011. "Fire Sales in Finance and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 29-48, Winter.
    16. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    17. Ellul, Andrew & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian T., 2011. "Regulatory pressure and fire sales in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 596-620, September.
    18. Jill Cetina & Bert Loudis & Charles Taylor, 2017. "Capital Buffers and the Future of Bank Stress Tests," Briefs 17-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    19. Erik R. Sirri & Peter Tufano, 1998. "Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1589-1622, October.
    20. Giansante, Simone & Chiarella, Carl & Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2012. "Structural contagion and vulnerability to unexpected liquidity shortfalls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 558-569.
    21. Morris, Stephen & Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Hyun Song, 2017. "Redemption risk and cash hoarding by asset managers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 71-87.
    22. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    23. Calimani, Susanna & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Żochowski, Dawid, 2017. "Simulating fire-sales in a banking and shadow banking system," ESRB Working Paper Series 46, European Systemic Risk Board.
    24. Pietro Bonaldi & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of Funding Costs Spillovers in the EURO-zone with Application to Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 21462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Dan Ladley, 2010. "Contagion and risk-sharing on the inter-bank market," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/10, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Jan 2013.
    26. Sinitskaya, Ekaterina & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2015. "Macroeconomies as constructively rational games," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 152-182.
    27. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2006. "Business fluctuations in a credit-network economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 68-74.
    28. Richard Bookstaber & Mark Paddrik, 2015. "An Agent-Based Model of Liquidity," Working Papers 15-18, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    29. Merrill, Craig B. & Nadauld, Taylor & Stulz, Rene M. & Sherlund, Shane M., 2014. "Were There Fire Sales in the RMBS Market?," Working Paper Series 2014-09, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    30. Turrell, Arthur, 2016. "Agent-based models: understanding the economy from the bottom up," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 56(4), pages 173-188.
    31. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
    32. Christoph Aymanns & Carlos Caceres & Christina Daniel & Miss Liliana B Schumacher, 2016. "Bank Solvency and Funding Cost," IMF Working Papers 2016/064, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    34. Ladley, Daniel, 2013. "Contagion and risk-sharing on the inter-bank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1384-1400.
    35. Falk Bräuning & Falko Fecht, 2017. "Relationship Lending in the Interbank Market and the Price of Liquidity," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 33-75.
    36. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Hsu, Yu-Ling, 2017. "Peer bank behavior, economic policy uncertainty, and leverage decision of financial institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 79-91.
    37. Fahr, Stephan & Żochowski, Dawid, 2015. "A Framework for Analysing and Assessing Cross-Border Spillovers from Macroprudential Policies," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    38. Jorge Abad & Marco D'Errico & Neill Killeen & Vera Luz & Tuomas Peltonen & Richard Portes & Teresa Urbano, 2017. "Mapping the Interconnectedness between EU Banks and Shadow Banking Entities," NBER Working Papers 23280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Claessens, Stijn & Ghosh, Swati R. & Mihet, Roxana, 2013. "Macro-prudential policies to mitigate financial system vulnerabilities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 153-185.
    40. Beatty, Anne & Liao, Scott, 2014. "Financial accounting in the banking industry: A review of the empirical literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 339-383.
    41. Beau, Emily & Hill, John & Hussain, Tanveer & Nixon, Dan, 2014. "Bank funding costs: what are they, what determines them and why do they matter?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(4), pages 370-384.
    42. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Keswani, Aneel & Miguel, Antonio F. & Ramos, Sofia B., 2012. "The flow-performance relationship around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1759-1780.
    43. Jonathan B. Berk & Ian Tonks, 2007. "Return Persistence and Fund Flows in the Worst Performing Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 13042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Gara Afonso & Anna Kovner & Antoinette Schoar, 2011. "Stressed, Not Frozen: The Federal Funds Market in the Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1109-1139, August.
    45. J. Doyne Farmer & Duncan Foley, 2009. "The economy needs agent-based modelling," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 685-686, August.
    46. Eser, Fabian & Schwaab, Bernd, 2016. "Evaluating the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures: Empirical evidence from the ECB׳s Securities Markets Programme," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 147-167.
    47. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    48. Jean Helwege & Gaiyan Zhang, 2016. "Financial Firm Bankruptcy and Contagion," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1321-1362.
    49. Arinaminpathy, Nimalan & Kapadia, Sujit & May, Robert, 2012. "Size and complexity in model financial systems," Bank of England working papers 465, Bank of England.
    50. Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2017. "Multiple lending, credit lines and financial contagion," Working Paper Series 2089, European Central Bank.
    51. Bindseil, Ulrich, 2013. "Central bank collateral, asset fire sales, regulation and liquidity," Working Paper Series 1610, European Central Bank.
    52. Rungporn Roengpitya & Nikola Tarashev & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "Bank business models," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    53. Dent, Kieran & Westwood, Ben & Segoviano, Miguel, 2016. "Stress testing of banks: an introduction," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 56(3), pages 130-143.
    54. Lux, Thomas, 2015. "Emergence of a core-periphery structure in a simple dynamic model of the interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 11-23.
    55. Mr. Stefan W. Schmitz & Michael Sigmund & Ms. Laura Valderrama, 2017. "Bank Solvency and Funding Cost: New Data and New Results," IMF Working Papers 2017/116, International Monetary Fund.
    56. Mr. Dimitri G Demekas, 2015. "Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2015/146, International Monetary Fund.
    57. Itzhak Ben-David & Francesco Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2012. "Hedge Fund Stock Trading in the Financial Crisis of 2007--2009," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 1-54.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wiersema, Garbrand & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa M. & Wetzer, Thom & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2023. "Scenario-free analysis of financial stability with interacting contagion channels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    3. Roncoroni, Alan & Battiston, Stefano & D’Errico, Marco & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Kok, Christoffer, 2021. "Interconnected banks and systemically important exposures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. David Aikman & Daniel Beale & Adam Brinley-Codd & Anne-Caroline Hüser & Giovanni Covi & Caterina Lepore, 2023. "Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2023/173, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Barucca, Paolo & Mahmood, Tahir & Silvestri, Laura, 2021. "Common asset holdings and systemic vulnerability across multiple types of financial institution," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Romain Plassard, 2020. "Making a Breach: The Incorporation of Agent-Based Models into the Bank of England's Toolkit," GREDEG Working Papers 2020-30, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    7. Calimani, Susanna & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Żochowski, Dawid, 2022. "Simulating fire sales in a system of banks and asset managers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Valentina Macchiati & Giuseppe Brandi & Tiziana Di Matteo & Daniela Paolotti & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini, 2022. "Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(2), pages 443-474, April.
    9. Bardoscia, Marco & Barucca, Paolo & Codd, Adam Brinley & Hill, John, 2019. "Forward-looking solvency contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2018. "Agent-based model of system-wide implications of funding risk," Working Paper Series 2121, European Central Bank.
    2. Calimani, Susanna & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Żochowski, Dawid, 2022. "Simulating fire sales in a system of banks and asset managers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Liu, Anqi & Paddrik, Mark & Yang, Steve Y. & Zhang, Xingjia, 2020. "Interbank contagion: An agent-based model approach to endogenously formed networks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Andre R. Neveu, 2018. "A survey of network-based analysis and systemic risk measurement," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 241-281, July.
    5. Georg, Co-Pierre, 2014. "Contagious herding and endogenous network formation in financial networks," Discussion Papers 23/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Hüser, Anne-Caroline & Kok, Christoffer, 2022. "Contagion accounting in stress-testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    8. David Aikman & Daniel Beale & Adam Brinley-Codd & Anne-Caroline Hüser & Giovanni Covi & Caterina Lepore, 2023. "Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2023/173, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Francesco Lamperti & Antoine Mandel & Mauro Napoletano & Alessandro Sapio & Andrea Roventini & Tomas Balint & Igor Khorenzhenko, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03399574, HAL.
    10. Farmer, J. Doyne & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa & Nahai-Williamson, Paul & Wetzer, Thom, 2020. "Foundations of system-wide financial stress testing with heterogeneous institutions," INET Oxford Working Papers 2020-14, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    11. Financial Stability Committee, Task Force on cross-border Spillover Effects of macroprudential measures & Kok, Christoffer & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2020. "Cross-border spillover effects of macroprudential policies: a conceptual framework," Occasional Paper Series 242, European Central Bank.
    12. Batiz-Zuk, Enrique & López-Gallo, Fabrizio & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Solórzano-Margain, Juan Pablo, 2016. "Calibrating limits for large interbank exposures from a system-wide perspective," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 198-216.
    13. Paulin, James & Calinescu, Anisoara & Wooldridge, Michael, 2019. "Understanding flash crash contagion and systemic risk: A micro–macro agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 200-229.
    14. Aikman, David & Haldane, Andrew & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Kapadia, Sujit, 2018. "Rethinking financial stability," Bank of England working papers 712, Bank of England.
    15. Adão, Luiz F.S. & Silveira, Douglas & Ely, Regis A. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2022. "The impacts of interest rates on banks’ loan portfolio risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    16. Pawe{l} Smaga & Mateusz Wili'nski & Piotr Ochnicki & Piotr Arendarski & Tomasz Gubiec, 2016. "Can banks default overnight? Modeling endogenous contagion on O/N interbank market," Papers 1603.05142, arXiv.org.
    17. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Christoph Aymanns & J. Doyne Farmer & Alissa M. Keinniejenhuis & Thom Wetzer, 2017. "Models of Financial Stability and their Application in Stress Tests," Working Papers on Finance 1805, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    19. Ćehajić, Aida & Košak, Marko, 2021. "Macroprudential measures and developments in bank funding costs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    20. James Paulin & Anisoara Calinescu & Michael Wooldridge, 2018. "Understanding Flash Crash Contagion and Systemic Risk: A Micro-Macro Agent-Based Approach," Papers 1805.08454, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity; Systemic risk; Agent-based models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:503:y:2018:i:c:p:1151-1181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.