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A Better Measure of Institutional Informed Trading

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  • Hui Guo
  • Buhui Qiu

Abstract

Although many studies show that the presence of institutional investors facilitates the incorporation of accounting information into financial markets, the evidence of informed trading by institutions is rather limited in the extant literature. We address these inconsistent findings by proposing PC_NII, percentage changes in the number of a stock's institutional investors, as a novel informed trading measure. PC_NII is better able to detect informed trading than are changes in institutional ownership (ΔIO)—the measure commonly used in previous studies—because (i) entries and exits are usually triggered by substantive private information and (ii) only a small fraction of institutions have superior information. As conjectured, PC_NII subsumes the information content of ΔIO and other institutional trading and herding measures in the forecast of stock returns, and its strong predictive power for stock returns reflects mainly its close correlation with future earnings surprises. We also show that PC_NII helps address empirical issues that require a reliable measure of institutional informed trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Guo & Buhui Qiu, 2016. "A Better Measure of Institutional Informed Trading," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(2), pages 815-850, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:33:y:2016:i:2:p:815-850
    DOI: 10.1111/1911-3846.12160
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    Cited by:

    1. Luong, Thanh Son & Qiu, Buhui & Wu, Yi (Ava), 2021. "Does it pay to be socially connected with wall street brokerages? Evidence from cost of equity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Choijil, Enkhbayar & Méndez, Christian Espinosa & Wong, Wing-Keung & Vieito, João Paulo & Batmunkh, Munkh-Ulzii, 2022. "Thirty years of herd behavior in financial markets: A bibliometric analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Zhijuan Chen & William T. Lin & Changfeng Ma & Kent Wang, 2020. "Are individual investors liquidity providers around earnings announcements? Evidence from an emerging market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3447-3475, December.
    4. Anzhela Knyazeva & Diana Knyazeva & Leonard Kostovetsky, 2018. "Investor heterogeneity and trading," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(4), pages 680-718, September.
    5. Gu, Xin & Ying, Shan & Wang, Liangliang & Yu, Zhen & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2021. "A new estimation of institutional informed trading and firm transparency: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Qiu, Buhui & Roh, Tai-Yong, 2022. "What drives the dispersion anomaly?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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