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Heteroskedasticity in Excess Bitcoin Return Data: Google Trend vs. Garch Effects

Author

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  • Senarathne Chamil W.

    (School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China)

  • Šoja Tijana

    (Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Abstract

This paper examines the mixture of distribution properties associated with heteroskedastic excess Bitcoin return data, using the volume of Google search queries as a proxy for the information arrival time, from a monthly data sampling period of June 2010 to May 2019. The results show that the volatility coefficients become highly statistically insignificant when the lagged volume of search queries is included in the conditional variance equation of the GJR-GARCH-M model. This clearly suggests that the volume of search queries is shown to provide significant explanatory power regarding the variance of heteroskedastic excess Bitcoin return, which can be traced from the ARCH process defined in the GJR-GARCH-M specification. A significant negative relationship between the conditional volatility and the volume of search queries indicates that Internet (online) information arrival reduces the risk premium in the Bitcoin market, which may improve market stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Senarathne Chamil W. & Šoja Tijana, 2019. "Heteroskedasticity in Excess Bitcoin Return Data: Google Trend vs. Garch Effects," Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach, Sciendo, vol. 24(3), pages 35-45, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:finsci:v:24:y:2019:i:3:p:35-45:n:4
    DOI: 10.15611/fins.2019.3.04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; information flow; GARCH-in-Mean; GARCH effects; Google trend;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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