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Ipo Post-Issue Markets: Questionable Predilections But Diligent Learners?

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Author Info
Peter Bossaerts
Pierre Hillion

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Abstract

There appear to be no anomalies in the aftermarket of a sample of 4,848 U.S. IPOs over the period 1975 to 1995, except issues offered below $6. Risk is priced in the aftermarket in accordance with Rubinstein's asset-pricing model. Unlike under the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), however, market priors about the probability of future default are not unbiased at the IPO date. Still, subsequent learning is rational: the market uses Bayes' law with a correct-likelihood function (of news given the eventual fate of an issue). That is, the hypothesis of an efficiently learning market (ELM) cannot be rejected. We produce direct evidence in support of these statements, based on a new class of tests. We also provide indirect evidence, by documenting a gradual convergence of IPO prices towards EMH as issues mature. © 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 83 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 333-347
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:83:y:2001:i:2:p:333-347

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. El-Gamal, Mahmoud A. & Grether, David M., 1995. "Are People Bayesian? Uncovering Behavioral Strategies," Working Papers 919, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  2. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jain, Bharat A & Kini, Omesh, 1994. " The Post-Issue Operating Performance of IPO Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1699-1726, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bossaerts, Peter, 1997. "The Dynamics of Equity Prices in Fallible Markets," Working Papers 1015, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bondarenko, Oleg & Bossaerts, Peter, 2000. "Expectations and learning in Iowa," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(9), pages 1535-1555, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Ping Zhang, 2002. "Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: evidence from experimental asset markets," Working Paper 2002-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Fohlin, Caroline, 2000. "IPO Underpricing in Two Universes: Berlin, 1882-1892, and New York, 1998-2000," Working Papers 1088, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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