Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Are Shocks to Air Passenger Traffic Permanent or Transitory? Implications for Long-Term Air Passenger Forecasts for the UK

Contents:

Author Info

  • Nenad Njegovan
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    An important question facing air transport forecasters and developers of airport capacity in the UK is how robust is air passenger traffic to exogenous shocks such as, for example, September 11 and the second Gulf war. To address this question, this paper analyses statistical properties of air passenger traffic data for the UK and four other major developed aviation markets (Australia, Canada, Germany and the US), using time series methods. The evidence for the UK, Germany and Australia indicates that shocks to air passenger traffic are largely transitory and do not, in general, merit revision of forecasts over a long horizon. The exception is the shock associated with 1970s oil price rises, and the concurrent worldwide economic recession, which is found to have had a long-term impact on air passenger traffic growth in these countries. The US and Canada have also experienced a marked slowdown in traffic growth since the 1970s, but the evidence for these two countries is not consistent with a characterisation of shocks as being transitory fluctuations around a stable growth path. © 2006 LSE and the University of Bath

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.catchword.com/cgi-bin/cgi?ini=bc&body=linker&reqidx=0022-5258(20060501)40:2L.315;1-
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by London School of Economics and University of Bath in its journal Journal of Transport Economics and Policy.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages: 315-328

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:40:y:2006:i:2:p:315-328

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.bath.ac.uk/e-journals/jtep

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Chi, Junwook & Baek, Jungho, 2012. "A dynamic demand analysis of the United States air-passenger service," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 755-761.
    2. Koo, Tay T.R. & Tan, David T. & Duval, David Timothy, 2013. "Direct air transport and demand interaction: A vector error-correction model approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 14-19.
    3. Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional air traffic in the mid-term (2025): An econometric analysis of air traffic determinants using dynamic panel-data models," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6794, Paris Dauphine University.
    4. Fildes, Robert & Wei, Yingqi & Ismail, Suzilah, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of econometric models of air passenger traffic flows using multiple error measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 902-922, July.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:40:y:2006:i:2:p:315-328. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.