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Combining growth and level data: An estimation of the population of Belgian municipalities between 1880 and 1970

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  • Stijn Ronsse
  • Samuel Standaert

Abstract

Economic historians that study long-term changes during the nineteenth and twentieth century are fundamentally restricted by the availability of qualitative data. As a result, researchers are forced to either impute missing data, or otherwise combine datasets in some way. In this article, we demonstrate the versatility of state-space models in addressing these problems. Not only do they enable us to compose large data series of high quality, they also provide a clear estimate of how reliable this data is, allowing any subsequent analyses to take this reliability into account. We illustrate the advantages of a state-space model using the population of Belgian municipalities as a case study. By combining growth and level data, we are able to compute yearly population statistics of over 2600 municipalities from 1880 to 1970.

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  • Stijn Ronsse & Samuel Standaert, 2017. "Combining growth and level data: An estimation of the population of Belgian municipalities between 1880 and 1970," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 218-226, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:vhimxx:v:50:y:2017:i:4:p:218-226
    DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2017.1355764
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    1. González-Val, Rafael & Lanaspa, Luis & Sanz, Fernando, 2008. "New Evidence on Gibrat’s Law for Cities," MPRA Paper 10411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Samuel Standaert & Stijn Ronsse & Benjamin Vandermarliere, 2016. "Historical trade integration: globalization and the distance puzzle in the long twentieth century," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 10(2), pages 225-250, may.
    3. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, Decembrie.
    4. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Koop, Gary, 2016. "Should we care about the uncertainty around measures of political-economic development?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 752-763.
    5. Veenstra, Joost, 2015. "Output growth in German manufacturing, 1907–1936. A reinterpretation of time-series evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 38-49.
    6. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronan Lyons & Elisa Maria Tirindelli, 2022. "The Rise & Fall of Urban Concentration in Britain: Zipf, Gibrat and Gini across two centuries," Trinity Economics Papers tep0522, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    2. Rafael González-Val & Javier Silvestre, 2020. "An annual estimate of spatially disaggregated populations: Spain, 1900–2011," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 65(2), pages 491-508, October.

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