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Forecasting high-speed rail ridership using a simultaneous modeling approach

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  • Rongfang Liu
  • Andy Li

Abstract

The newly launched, June 2009, US High-Speed Intercity Passenger Rail Program has rekindled a renewed interest in forecasting high-speed rail (HSR) ridership. The first step to the concerted effort by the federal, state, rail, and other related agencies to develop a nationwide HSR network is the development of credible approaches to forecast the ridership. This article presents a nested logit/simultaneous choice model to improve the demand forecast in the context of intercity travel. In addition to incorporating the interrelationship between trip generation and mode choice decisions, the simultaneous model also provides a platform for the same utility function flowing between both the decision-making processes. Using American Travel Survey data, supplemented by various mode parameters, the proposed model improves the forecast accuracy and confirms the significant impact of travel costs on both mode choice and trip generation. Furthermore, the cross elasticity of mode choice and trip generation related to travel costs and other modal characteristics may shed some light on transportation policies in the area of intercity travel, especially in anticipation of HSR development.

Suggested Citation

  • Rongfang Liu & Andy Li, 2012. "Forecasting high-speed rail ridership using a simultaneous modeling approach," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 577-590, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:35:y:2012:i:5:p:577-590
    DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2012.701816
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kockelman, Kara M., 1998. "A Utility-Theory-Consistent System-of-Demand-Equations Approach to Household Travel Choice," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3h67j2p2, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Kockelman, Kara Maria, 1998. "A Utility-Theory-Consistem System-of-Demand-Equations Approach to Household Travel Choice," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt06x0k5r4, University of California Transportation Center.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chester, Mikhail V. & Ryerson, Megan S., 2014. "Grand challenges for high-speed rail environmental assessment in the United States," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 15-26.
    2. Banerjee, Nilabhra & Morton, Alec & Akartunalı, Kerem, 2020. "Passenger demand forecasting in scheduled transportation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 797-810.

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