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Volatility dynamics under an endogenous Markov-switching framework: a cross-market approach

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  • Wonho Song
  • Doojin Ryu
  • Robert I. Webb

Abstract

This study uses an endogenous Markov-switching framework to examine the interrelatedness of the volatility dynamics of the US and Korean markets. Previous literature assumes that the US market implied volatility index is exogenous to the Korean implied volatility index. Here, we allow for correlations between the US and Korean variables and suggest two types of endogeneity, namely endogeneity in the regressors and in the regime-switching probabilities. The estimation results show that both types of endogeneity are present in the US variables and that the parameter estimates are quite different when endogeneity is considered, indicating a serious endogeneity bias in the parameter estimates. The results of the endogeneity test for the regressors show that the effects of global shocks are often persistent and may last for as long as six periods. Sub-period analyses indicate that the degrees of endogeneity were especially strong during the global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Wonho Song & Doojin Ryu & Robert I. Webb, 2018. "Volatility dynamics under an endogenous Markov-switching framework: a cross-market approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 1559-1571, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:18:y:2018:i:9:p:1559-1571
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2018.1444551
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jieun Lee & Doojin Ryu, 2019. "The impacts of public news announcements on intraday implied volatility dynamics," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 656-685, June.
    2. Chotipong Charoensom, 2024. "An Estimation of Regime Switching Models with Nonlinear Endogenous Switching," PIER Discussion Papers 217, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Doojin Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2018. "The directional information content of options volumes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1533-1548, December.
    4. Yang, Heejin & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Volatility information trading in the index options market: An intraday analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 412-426.
    5. Steven D. Silver & Marko Raseta, 2021. "An ARFIMA multi-level model of dual-component expectations in repeated cross-sectional survey data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 683-699, February.
    6. Xingguo Luo & Wenye Cai & Doojin Ryu, 2022. "Information contents of intraday SSE 50 ETF options trades," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 580-604, April.
    7. Lee, Jaeram & Lee, Geul & Ryu, Doojin, 2018. "Difference in the intraday return-volume relationships of spots and futures: A quantile regression approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-68, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Song, Wonho & Park, Sung Y. & Ryu, Doojin, 2018. "Dynamic conditional relationships between developed and emerging markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 534-543.
    9. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2023. "Discovering the drivers of stock market volatility in a data-rich world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2020. "Economic indicators and stock market volatility in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    11. Doojin Ryu & Robert I. Webb & Jinyoung Yu, 2023. "Who pays the liquidity cost? Central bank announcements and adverse selection," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 904-924, July.
    12. Joonhyuk Song & Doojin Ryu & Jinyoung Yu, 2023. "Changes in the options contract size and arbitrage opportunities," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 122-137, January.
    13. Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding & Haili Shi, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on the interdependence between US and Chinese oil futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2041-2052, November.
    14. Ryu, Doojin & Yang, Heejin, 2019. "Who has volatility information in the index options market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 266-270.
    15. Doojin Ryu & Doowon Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2021. "The impact of net buying pressure on index options prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 27-45, January.
    16. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Forecasting the KOSPI200 spot volatility using various volatility measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 156-166.
    17. Sang Ik Seok & Hoon Cho & Chanhi Park & Doojin Ryu, 2019. "Do Overnight Returns Truly Measure Firm-Specific Investor Sentiment in the KOSPI Market?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-14, July.
    18. Jungmu Kim & Yuen Jung Park, 2020. "Predictability of OTC Option Volatility for Future Stock Volatility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-23, June.
    19. Lee, Jaeram & Ryu, Doojin & Yang, Heejin, 2021. "Does vega-neutral options trading contain information?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 294-314.
    20. Doojin Ryu & Jinyoung Yu, 2021. "Informed options trading around holidays," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 658-685, May.
    21. Jung Park, Yuen & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "The impacts of overseas market shocks on the CDS-option basis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 622-636.
    22. Daehyeon PARK & Doojin RYU, 2021. "Forecasting Stock Market Dynamics using Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 22-34, June.
    23. Lee, Jieun & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "How does FX liquidity affect the relationship between foreign ownership and stock liquidity?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 101-119.
    24. Daehyeon Park & Jiyeon Park & Doojin Ryu, 2020. "Volatility Spillovers between Equity and Green Bond Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-12, May.

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