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The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on Vietnam: Evidence from an over-identifying SVAR analysis

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  • Binh Thai Pham
  • Hector Sala

Abstract

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in Vietnam. It expands Kilian’s (2009. “Not All Oil Price Shocks are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market.” American Economic Review 99: 1053–1069) framework to simultaneously consider world interest rate shocks and comprehensively assess their consequences on international competitiveness and the State Bank management of the monetary policy. Methodologically, this implies dealing with an over-identified structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Data wise, the analysis is performed on a unique dataset with variables defined at a monthly frequency running from 1998:01 to 2018:12. Demand-side, global-, and specific-oil price shocks determine inflation and international competitiveness. They play an essential role in explaining the long-run variations of several Vietnamese macroeconomic indicators (mainly the trade balance, three-month interest rate, and the inflation rate). Vietnam’s Dong pegging to the US Dollar results in a stronger impact of these shocks when real exchange rates and the rate of exports are modelled, than when real effective exchange rates and the trade balance are modelled. In the latter case, shock absorption is quicker given the multilateral trade context in which no single pegging holds. In association with the strong tie between Vietnam’s Dong and the U.S. dollar, we also uncover remarkable effects of the U.S. federal funds rate shocks. Supply-side oil price shocks have little impact on inflation and international competitiveness but condition the monetary policy. Neglecting such influence in the past may have resulted in an excessively conservative monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Binh Thai Pham & Hector Sala, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on Vietnam: Evidence from an over-identifying SVAR analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(8), pages 907-933, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:29:y:2020:i:8:p:907-933
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2020.1762710
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    Cited by:

    1. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
    2. Jiang, Wei & Liu, Yan, 2021. "The asymmetric effect of crude oil prices on stock prices in major international financial markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    3. Arodh Lal Karn & Bhavana Raj Kondamudi & Ravi Kumar Gupta & Denis A. Pustokhin & Irina V. Pustokhina & Meshal Alharbi & Subramaniyaswamy Vairavasundaram & Vijayakumar Varadarajan & Sudhakar Sengan, 2022. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Energy Price Shocks for Sustainable Energy on the Macro-Economy of South Asian Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Zhang, Tianding & Zeng, Song, 2023. "Dynamic comovement and extreme risk spillovers between international crude oil and China's non-ferrous metal futures market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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