IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/japsta/v29y2002i1-4p267-287.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimation of long-term trends and variation in avian survival probabilities using random effects models

Author

Listed:
  • Alan Franklin
  • David Anderson
  • Kenneth Burnham

Abstract

We obtained banding and recovery data from the Bird Banding Laboratory (operated by the Biological Resources Division of the US Geological Survey) for adults from 129 avian species that had been continuously banded for > 24 years. Data were partitioned by gender, banding period (winter versus summer), and by states/provinces. Data sets were initially screened for adequacy based on specific criteria (e.g. minimum sample sizes). Fifty-nine data sets (11 waterfowl species, the Mourning Dove and Common Grackle) met our criteria of adequacy for further analysis. We estimated annual survival probabilities using the Brownie et al. recovery model {St, ft} in program MARK. Trends in annual survival and temporal process variation were estimated using random effects models based on shrinkage estimators. Waterfowl species had relatively little variation in annual survival probabilities (mean CV = 8.7% and 10% for males and females, respectively). The limited data for other species suggested similar low temporal variation for males, but higher temporal variation for females (CV = 40%). Evidence for long-term trends varied by species, banding period and sex, with no obvious spatial patterns for either positive or negative trends in survival probabilities. An exception was Mourning Doves banded in Illinois/Missouri and Arizona/New Mexico where both males (slope = -0.0122, se = 0.0019 and females (slope = -0.0109 to -0.0128, se = 0.0018 -0.0032) exhibited declining trends in survival probabilities. We believe our approach has application for large-scale monitoring. However, meaningful banding and recovery data for species other than waterfowl is very limited in North America.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Franklin & David Anderson & Kenneth Burnham, 2002. "Estimation of long-term trends and variation in avian survival probabilities using random effects models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1-4), pages 267-287.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:29:y:2002:i:1-4:p:267-287
    DOI: 10.1080/02664760120108719
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02664760120108719
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/02664760120108719?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C, R & K, G, 2002. "In this issue ..," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(7), pages 2-2.
    2. Kenneth Burnham & Gary White, 2002. "Evaluation of some random effects methodology applicable to bird ringing data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1-4), pages 245-264.
    3. C, R & K, G, 2002. "In this issue ..," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(10), pages 2-2, December.
    4. C, R & K, G, 2002. "In this issue..," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 2-2, October.
    5. C, R & K, G, 2002. "In this issue ..," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 2-2, November.
    6. C, R & K, G, 2002. "In this issue ..," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 2-2, March.
    7. C, R & K, G, 2002. "In this issue ..," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 2-2.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Devin S. Johnson & Jennifer A. Hoeting, 2003. "Autoregressive Models for Capture-Recapture Data: A Bayesian Approach," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 341-350, June.
    2. Kenneth Burnham & Gary White, 2002. "Evaluation of some random effects methodology applicable to bird ringing data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1-4), pages 245-264.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anne Loison & Bernt-Erik Sæther & Kurt Jerstad & Ole Wiggo Røstad, 2002. "Disentangling the sources of variation in the survival of the European dipper," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1-4), pages 289-304.
    2. Howard Petith, 2003. "Marx's Analysis of the Falling Rate of Profit in the First Version of Volume III of Capital," Working Papers 25, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Mertens, Matthias & Mueller, Steffen, 2022. "The East-West German gap in revenue productivity:Just a tale of output prices?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 815-831.
    4. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
    5. Acerbi, Carlo, 2002. "Spectral measures of risk: A coherent representation of subjective risk aversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1505-1518, July.
    6. Elissaios Papyrakis, 2017. "The Resource Curse - What Have We Learned from Two Decades of Intensive Research: Introduction to the Special Issue," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 175-185, February.
    7. Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2002. "The bond/old-bond spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 463-506.
    8. Aucremanne, Luc & Dhyne, Emmanuel, 2005. "Time-dependent versus state-dependent pricing: a panel data approach to the determinants of Belgian consumer price changes," Working Paper Series 462, European Central Bank.
    9. Barbara Sianesi, 2002. "The returns to education: a review of the empirical macro-economic literature," IFS Working Papers W02/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. Helmut Fryges & Mike Wright, 2014. "The origin of spin-offs: a typology of corporate and academic spin-offs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 245-259, August.
    11. Eva Teqja (Allushi), 2014. "Western Balkans: Between The Fulfillment Of Criteria And The Diversity Of Problems. The Long Way Of Albania," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 8(1), pages 555-571.
    12. Kpate ADJAOUTE & Jean-Pierre DANTHINE, 2004. "Equity Returns and Integration: Is Europe Changing?," FAME Research Paper Series rp117, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    13. Victoria-Sophie Osburg & Iain Davies & Vignesh Yoganathan & Fraser McLeay, 2021. "Perspectives, Opportunities and Tensions in Ethical and Sustainable Luxury: Introduction to the Thematic Symposium," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 169(2), pages 201-210, March.
    14. Guthrie, Joanne F. & Buzby, Jean C., 2002. "Several Strategies May Lower Plate Waste in School Feeding Programs," Food Review/ National Food Review, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 25(2), pages 1-7.
    15. De Groot, Rudolf & Van der Perk, Johan & Chiesura, Anna & van Vliet, Arnold, 2003. "Importance and threat as determining factors for criticality of natural capital," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2-3), pages 187-204, March.
    16. Tasche, Dirk, 2002. "Expected shortfall and beyond," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1519-1533, July.
    17. Ramon Navarro Ceballos & Jonathan Navarro, 2018. "Breast CA Prevention with 5th Generation Mastopexy Augmentation Technique," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 10(5), pages 8096-8101, November.
    18. Samaranayaka, Ari & Fletcher, David, 2010. "Modelling environmental stochasticity in adult survival for a long-lived species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 423-427.
    19. George Seber & Carl Schwarz, 2002. "Capture-recapture: Before and after EURING 2000," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1-4), pages 5-18.
    20. Devin S. Johnson & Jennifer A. Hoeting, 2003. "Autoregressive Models for Capture-Recapture Data: A Bayesian Approach," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 341-350, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:29:y:2002:i:1-4:p:267-287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.