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Particle learning for Bayesian semi-parametric stochastic volatility model

Author

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  • Audronė Virbickaitė
  • Hedibert F. Lopes
  • M. Concepción Ausín
  • Pedro Galeano

Abstract

This article designs a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm for estimation of Bayesian semi-parametric Stochastic Volatility model for financial data. In particular, it makes use of one of the most recent particle filters called Particle Learning (PL). SMC methods are especially well suited for state-space models and can be seen as a cost-efficient alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), since they allow for online type inference. The posterior distributions are updated as new data is observed, which is exceedingly costly using MCMC. Also, PL allows for consistent online model comparison using sequential predictive log Bayes factors. A simulated data is used in order to compare the posterior outputs for the PL and MCMC schemes, which are shown to be almost identical. Finally, a short real data application is included.

Suggested Citation

  • Audronė Virbickaitė & Hedibert F. Lopes & M. Concepción Ausín & Pedro Galeano, 2019. "Particle learning for Bayesian semi-parametric stochastic volatility model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(9), pages 1007-1023, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:38:y:2019:i:9:p:1007-1023
    DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2018.1514022
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    Cited by:

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    2. Audrone Virbickaite & Hedibert F. Lopes, 2018. "Bayesian Semi-Parametric Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility Model," DEA Working Papers 89, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    3. Tevfik Aktekin & Nicholas G. Polson & Refik Soyer, 2020. "A family of multivariate non‐gaussian time series models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 691-721, September.
    4. Virbickaitė, Audronė & Frey, Christoph & Macedo, Demian N., 2020. "Bayesian sequential stock return prediction through copulas," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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