Bayesian Non-Parametric Portfolio Decisions with Financial Time Series
AbstractA Bayesian non-parametric approach for efficient risk management is proposed. A dynamic model is considered where optimal portfolio weights and hedging ratios are adjusted at each period. The covariance matrix of the returns is described using an asymmetric MGARCH model. Restrictive parametric assumptions for the errors are avoided by relying on Bayesian non-parametric methods, which allow for a better evaluation of the uncertainty in financial decisions. Illustrative risk management problems using real data are solved. Significant differences in posterior distributions of the optimal weights and ratios are obtained arising from different assumptions for the errors in the time series model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1301.5129.
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-01-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2013-01-26 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2013-01-26 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-RMG-2013-01-26 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts, 2008. "Retrospective Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for Dirichlet process hierarchical models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(1), pages 169-186.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993.
" On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988.
"Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-30, November.
- David Ardia & Lennart F. Hoogerheide, 2010.
"Efficient Bayesian Estimation and Combination of GARCH-Type Models,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
10-046/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Ardia, David & Hoogerheide, Lennart F., 2010. "Efficient Bayesian estimation and combination of GARCH-type models," MPRA Paper 22919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jensen, Mark J. & Maheu, John M., 2013.
"Bayesian semiparametric multivariate GARCH modeling,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 3-17.
- Mark J Jensen & John M Maheu, 2012. "Bayesian semiparametric multivariate GARCH modeling," Working Papers tecipa-458, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2012. "Bayesian semiparametric multivariate GARCH modeling," Working Paper 2012-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Multivariate GARCH Modeling," Working Paper Series 48_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Hun Y. Park & Anil K. Bera, 1987. "Interest-Rate Volatility, Basis Risk and Heteroscedasticity in Hedging Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(2), pages 79-97.
- Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
- Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2007.
"Multivariate GARCH models,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
669, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 18 Jan 2008.
- Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006.
"Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics,
Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
- Sheppard, Kevin & Cappiello, Lorenzo & Engle, Robert F., 2003. "Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns," Working Paper Series 0204, European Central Bank.
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
- Giamouridis, Daniel & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2007. "Hedge fund portfolio construction: A comparison of static and dynamic approaches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 199-217, January.
- Eduardo Rossi & Claudio Zucca, 2002. "Hedging interest rate risk with multivariate GARCH," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 241-251.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.