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A common currency area for ASEAN? issues and feasibility

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  • Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha

Abstract

This article examines the feasibility of a Common Currency Area (CCA) for ASEAN and the broader ASEAN +5. Using macro-economic data for 14 East Asian countries over the 34-year period 1970-2003, this article addresses whether a Euro style CCA would be well suited for these countries. Issues such as the costs and benefits involved and which countries may be best suited are examined. Previous literature on currency unions have identified synchronous business cycles, similarity in inflation levels and policy congruence to be among essential preconditions. A Vector Autoregression Model and Correlation Analysis is used to examine common linkages among the 14 sample countries. Impulse response functions and variance decomposition is used to identify potential candidates among the 14 countries. The results show an absence of broad-based common linkages. Instead, several paired clusters are identified as potential candidates. The results imply that while a region-wide CCA may not now be feasible, a strategy of beginning with paired clusters and then expanding may be a logical progression if a currency union is a desired objective.

Suggested Citation

  • Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha, 2008. "A common currency area for ASEAN? issues and feasibility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 515-529.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:4:p:515-529
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600675653
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Koh, Sharon G.M., 2012. "The prospects of a monetary union in East Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 96-102.
    2. Enzo Weber, 2012. "Regional and outward economic integration in South-East Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1271-1283, April.
    3. Shahriar Kabir & Ruhul Salim, 2016. "Can A Common Currency Induce Intra-Regional Trade? The Southeast Asian Perspective," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 218-234, November.
    4. Quah, Chee-Heong & Ho, Yew-Joe, 2020. "Economic Feasibility of Malaysia and Singapore-Brunei Monetary Reunion: A Scrutiny during Major Financial Crises," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 27(1).
    5. Mustafa Caglayan & Omar S. Dahi & Firat Demir, 2013. "Trade Flows, Exchange Rate Uncertainty, and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 905-927, April.
    6. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Azali, M., 2012. "Is East Asia an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 87-95.
    7. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2018. "Meta‐Analysis of Chinese Business Cycle Correlation," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 385-410, August.
    8. Lee, Chin & M., Azali, 2013. "Financial Integration among ASEAN+3 Countries: Evidence from Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 58162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lee, Grace H.Y., 2011. "Gold dinar for the Islamic countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1573-1586, July.
    10. Ong, Sheue Li & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2018. "Regional or global shock? A global VAR analysis of Asian economic and financial integration," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 232-248.
    11. Genberg, Hans & Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Revisiting the shocking aspects of Asian monetary unification," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 445-455, October.
    12. Wong, KKS & Chin, Lee & Azali, M, 2015. "Yen Synchronization among ASEAN-5, Korea and Japan: Evidence from The Multivariate GARCH Model," MPRA Paper 96863, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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