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Asset bubbles, monetary policy and bank lending in Japan: an empirical investigation

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  • Amy Basile
  • Joseph Joyce

Abstract

Asset prices rose rapidly in Japan during the latter half of the 1980s, and then declined as quickly in the early 1990s. Their behaviour is consistent with the existence of speculative 'bubbles' in these markets. This paper investigates the dynamic relationships among stock and land prices in Japan, output, and monetary and bank lending variables. The results of causality tests and variance decompositions are reported for two time periods, 1972#1501985 and 1986#1501991. The price bubbles affected each other in the first period, although the size of this impact is dependent on the choice of variables in the VARs. In the bubble period, there is strong evidence that the stock market bubble was determined by its own past and also influenced the land market bubble, accounting for a significant proportion of the variance of the land market bubble. However, neither output, the money supply nor the lending variables were significant in the causality tests or in explaining the variation of the two assset bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Amy Basile & Joseph Joyce, 2001. "Asset bubbles, monetary policy and bank lending in Japan: an empirical investigation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(13), pages 1737-1744.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:13:p:1737-1744
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840010018621
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    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Qin XIAO & Randolph TAN GEE KWANG, 2010. "Kalman Filter Estimation of Property Price Bubbles in Seoul," EcoMod2004 330600164, EcoMod.
    3. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Does monetary policy generate asset price bubbles ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2geqol5jud8, Sciences Po.
    4. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Bubbles," Working Papers hal-04141787, HAL.
    5. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403075, HAL.
    6. Renee Fry, 2004. "International demand and liquidity shocks in a SVAR model of the Australian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 849-863.
    7. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Estimating the Bank of Japan's monetary policy reaction function," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(229), pages 169-183.
    8. Qin Xiao & Gee Kwang Randolph Tan, 2007. "Signal Extraction with Kalman Filter: A Study of the Hong Kong Property Price Bubbles," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(4), pages 865-888, April.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2geqol5jud8hgonsak4roj21gh is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2018. "Bubble contagion: Evidence from Japan’s asset price bubble of the 1980-90s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 89-95.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3eg9t5b1sb8phpnt79jr73qjr7 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "Information Shocks in the U.S. and Asset Mispricing in Emerging Economies," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-19, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Estimating the Bank of Japan's monetary policy reaction function," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(229), pages 169-183.
    14. Monzur Hossain, 2005. "Can Japan avert any future banking crisis?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 425-429.

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