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Multi-Risk Interaction Analysis of Cascade Hydropower Stations Based on System Dynamics Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Boran Zhu

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research
    Key Laboratory of River Basin Digital Twinning of Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Junqiang Lin

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research
    Key Laboratory of River Basin Digital Twinning of Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Yi Liu

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research
    Key Laboratory of River Basin Digital Twinning of Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Di Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research
    Key Laboratory of River Basin Digital Twinning of Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Qidong Peng

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research
    Key Laboratory of River Basin Digital Twinning of Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Yufeng Ren

    (Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Yangtze and Hydroelectric Science
    China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd)

  • Jiejie Chen

    (Huaneng Tibet Hydropower Safety Engineering Technology Research Center)

  • Yi Xu

    (Zhejiang University)

Abstract

The operation of cascade hydropower stations is accompanied by various target risks while exerting the comprehensive benefits of water resources. The systematic analysis of multi-risk interactions in system operation can improve the operational benefit of hydropower stations. However, the current hydropower operating model used for risk simulation cannot show the dynamic operation processes within the system, which may limit the popularization of the model. In addition, most existing studies define risk from the perspective of reliability and lack analyses of risk resilience and vulnerability. In this study, a system dynamics model for cascade hydropower stations and a unified multi-objective performance index system are constructed. The relationships among the multi-risk of the Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba (XLD-XJB) cascade hydropower stations are explored from the aspects of reliability, resilience and vulnerability. The results are as follows. (1) The system dynamics model can effectively simulate the dynamic process of system operation and can be used to study the performance risk changes in the operation process of hydropower stations. (2) The current operating rule leads to ecological risk and shipping risk in the system in the normal scenario. There are also power risks in wet and dry scenarios. (3) There is a contradiction between power risk and shipping risk. In addition, in the case of insufficient inflow, there is a contradiction between the reliability and vulnerability of power risk. (4) The regulation of ecological risk helps reduce shipping risk and power risk. Therefore, ecological outflow should be regarded as the minimum outflow requirement of cascade hydropower stations.

Suggested Citation

  • Boran Zhu & Junqiang Lin & Yi Liu & Di Zhang & Qidong Peng & Yufeng Ren & Jiejie Chen & Yi Xu, 2024. "Multi-Risk Interaction Analysis of Cascade Hydropower Stations Based on System Dynamics Simulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(1), pages 45-62, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03628-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03628-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hexiang Zhang & Wei Ge & Yadong Zhang & Zongkun Li & Wei Li & Junyu Zhu & Wenqi Wang, 2023. "Risk Management Decision of Reservoir Dams Based on the Improved Life Quality Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1223-1239, February.
    2. Jiqing Li & Jing Huang & Pengteng Liang & Jay R. Lund, 2021. "Fuzzy Representation of Environmental Flow in Multi-Objective Risk Analysis of Reservoir Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(9), pages 2845-2861, July.
    3. Ahmadzadeh, Hojat & Mansouri, Bahareh & Fathian, Farshad & Vaheddoost, Babak, 2022. "Assessment of water demand reliability using SWAT and RIBASIM models with respect to climate change and operational water projects," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
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