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Climate Change Impacts on Blue and Green Water of Meki River Sub-Basin

Author

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  • Aster Tesfaye Hordofa

    (Addis Ababa University)

  • Olkeba Tolessa Leta

    (Bureau of Watershed Management and Modeling, St. Johns River Water Management District)

  • Tena Alamirew

    (Addis Ababa University)

  • Abebe Demissie Chukalla

    (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)

Abstract

Climate change (CC) is likely to have a negative effect on water balance components thereby increasing global water scarcity. These effects, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas, have not been fully understood, in part because green water was not adequately represented in the relevant assessments. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variations of blue and green water resources under baseline and future climate conditions by applying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool plus (SWAT+) model to the Meki River, located in Central Rift Valley (CRV) Lake Basins of Ethiopia. Based on sensitive parameters, identified from sensitivity analysis, we calibrated and validated the SWAT + model for the period from 1993 to 2000 and 1987 to 1992, respectively. During both the calibration and validation period, the model showed reasonable performance with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of greater than 0.65. The model was then used to assess the effects of CC (representative concentrations pathways, RCP, 4.5 and 8.5) on the blue and green water components of the Meki River. We found that blue water is expected to decrease under both RCPs (4.5 and 8.5) scenarios, but anticipated to show a more decline of up to 56% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Oppositely, green water is expected to increase under both scenarios, but RCP8.5 is projected to cause a larger increase (24%) when compared to the baseline. Overall, the integrated blue and green water modeling and assessment can be used as a tool to develop efficient strategies for water resources management of the Meki River.

Suggested Citation

  • Aster Tesfaye Hordofa & Olkeba Tolessa Leta & Tena Alamirew & Abebe Demissie Chukalla, 2023. "Climate Change Impacts on Blue and Green Water of Meki River Sub-Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2835-2851, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03490-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03490-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Theodoros Mastrotheodoros & Christoforos Pappas & Peter Molnar & Paolo Burlando & Gabriele Manoli & Juraj Parajka & Riccardo Rigon & Borbala Szeles & Michele Bottazzi & Panagiotis Hadjidoukas & Simone, 2020. "More green and less blue water in the Alps during warmer summers," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(2), pages 155-161, February.
    2. Desta, Hayal & Fetene, Aramde, 2020. "Land-use and land-cover change in Lake Ziway watershed of the Ethiopian Central Rift Valley Region and its environmental impacts," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    3. Patrick W. Keys & Malin Falkenmark, 2018. "Green water and African sustainability," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(3), pages 537-548, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. G. P. Tsakiris & D. P. Loucks, 2023. "Adaptive Water Resources Management Under Climate Change: An Introduction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2221-2233, May.

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