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Assessment of the Analytic and Hydrologic Methods in Separation of Watershed Response to Climate and Land Use Changes

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  • Omidreza Mikaeili

    (Technical and Engineering College, Shahid Beheshti University)

  • Mojtaba Shourian

    (Technical and Engineering College, Shahid Beheshti University)

Abstract

Climate change and human activities are two major drivers that alter hydrological cycle processes and cause changes in spatio-temporal distribution of water availability. Streamflow as the most important component of hydrologic cycle is expected to be influenced by climate change as well as human activities. Three methods including hydrological sensitivity procedure, slope change ratio of cumulative quantity and hydrological modeling by SWAT are investigated and compared for separating the impact of climate change and human activities on the Minab River flow in south of Iran. Also, nine scenarios are defined for development of agricultural land and urbanization to evaluate the effect of climate change and human activities within the SWAT model. Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests are used to analyze the trends and the change point in the climatic data time series. Results show that the share of human activities and climate change are close in three methods. Scenario H9 that includes the development of agricultural land and urbanization by 30% compared to the present situation reduced the streamflow by 88.8% that is the highest reduction among the scenarios. Also, the results indicate that human activities are the main reason for streamflow reduction in the Minab River.

Suggested Citation

  • Omidreza Mikaeili & Mojtaba Shourian, 2023. "Assessment of the Analytic and Hydrologic Methods in Separation of Watershed Response to Climate and Land Use Changes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2575-2591, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03324-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03324-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Meilin Wang & Yaqi Shao & Qun’ou Jiang & Ling Xiao & Haiming Yan & Xiaowei Gao & Lijun Wang & Peibin Liu, 2020. "Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity on the Runoff Changes in the Guishui River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-20, August.
    2. ChaoQing Yu & Xiao Huang & Han Chen & H. Charles J. Godfray & Jonathon S. Wright & Jim W. Hall & Peng Gong & ShaoQiang Ni & ShengChao Qiao & GuoRui Huang & YuChen Xiao & Jie Zhang & Zhao Feng & XiaoTa, 2019. "Managing nitrogen to restore water quality in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 567(7749), pages 516-520, March.
    3. A. N. Pettitt, 1979. "A Non‐Parametric Approach to the Change‐Point Problem," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 28(2), pages 126-135, June.
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