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Modeling Daily Reference Evapotranspiration from Climate Variables: Assessment of Bagging and Boosting Regression Approaches

Author

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  • Jayashree T R

    (Manipal Institute of Technology, Manipal Academy of Higher Education)

  • NV Subba Reddy

    (Department of Information Technology Manipal Institute of Technology Bengaluru, Manipal Academy of Higher Education)

  • U Dinesh Acharya

    (Manipal Institute of Technology, Manipal Academy of Higher Education)

Abstract

The increasing frequency of droughts and floods due to climate change has severely affected water resources across the globe in recent years. An optimal design for the scheduling and management of irrigation is thus urgently needed to adapt agricultural activities to the changing climate. The accurate estimation of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0), a vital hydrological component of the water balance and crop water need, is a tiresome task if all the relevant climatic variables are unavailable. This study investigates the potential of four ensemble techniques for estimating precise values of the daily ET0 at representative stations in 10 agro-climatic zones in the state of Karnataka, India, from 1979 to 2014. The performance of these models was evaluated by using several combinations of climatic variables as inputs by using tenfold cross-validation. The outcomes indicated that predictions of ET0 by all four ensemble models based on all climatic variables were the most accurate in comparison with other input combinations. The random forest regressor was found to deliver the best performance among the four models on all measures considered (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, 1.0, root-mean-squared error, 0.016 mm/day, and mean absolute error, 0.011 mm/day). However, it incurred the highest computational cost, whereas the computational cost of the bagging model for linear regression was the lowest. The extreme gradient-boosting model delivered the most stable performance with a modified training dataset. The work here shows that these models can be recommended for daily ET0 estimation based on the users’ interests.

Suggested Citation

  • Jayashree T R & NV Subba Reddy & U Dinesh Acharya, 2023. "Modeling Daily Reference Evapotranspiration from Climate Variables: Assessment of Bagging and Boosting Regression Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1013-1032, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03399-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03399-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tianao Wu & Wei Zhang & Xiyun Jiao & Weihua Guo & Yousef Alhaj Hamoud, 2020. "Comparison of five Boosting-based models for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration with limited meteorological variables," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-28, June.
    2. Tao, Hai & Diop, Lamine & Bodian, Ansoumana & Djaman, Koffi & Ndiaye, Papa Malick & Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, 2018. "Reference evapotranspiration prediction using hybridized fuzzy model with firefly algorithm: Regional case study in Burkina Faso," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 140-151.
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    4. Soo-Jin Kim & Seung-Jong Bae & Min-Won Jang, 2022. "Linear Regression Machine Learning Algorithms for Estimating Reference Evapotranspiration Using Limited Climate Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Yash Agrawal & Manoranjan Kumar & Supriya Ananthakrishnan & Gopalakrishnan Kumarapuram, 2022. "Evapotranspiration Modeling Using Different Tree Based Ensembled Machine Learning Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 1025-1042, February.
    6. Yamaç, Sevim Seda & Todorovic, Mladen, 2020. "Estimation of daily potato crop evapotranspiration using three different machine learning algorithms and four scenarios of available meteorological data," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    7. Dilip Kumar Roy & Kowshik Kumar Saha & Mohammad Kamruzzaman & Sujit Kumar Biswas & Mohammad Anower Hossain, 2021. "Hierarchical Fuzzy Systems Integrated with Particle Swarm Optimization for Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Prediction: a Novel Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(15), pages 5383-5407, December.
    8. Fan, Junliang & Ma, Xin & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Yu, Xiang & Zeng, Wenzhi, 2019. "Light Gradient Boosting Machine: An efficient soft computing model for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration with local and external meteorological data," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
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