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Probabilistic Assessment of Monthly River Discharge using Copula and OSVR Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi

    (University of Birjand)

  • Rasoul Mirabbasi

    (Shahrekord University)

  • Yousef Ramezani

    (University of Birjand)

  • Farshad Ahmadi

    (Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz)

Abstract

In this study, two efficient approaches for bivariate simulation are presented, which include meteorological and hydrological variables. For this purpose, the applicability of support vector regression (SVR) model optimized by Ant colony and Copula-GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) algorithms were investigated and compared in simulating the river discharge based on total monthly rainfall in Talezang Basin, Iran. Entropy theory was used to select a suitable meteorological station corresponding to a hydrometric station. The vector autoregressive model was also used as the base model in Copula-GARCH simulations. According to the 99% confidence intervals of the simulations, the accuracy of both models was confirmed. The simulation results showed that the Copula-GARCH model was more accurate than the optimized SVR (OSVR) model. Considering the 90% efficiency (NSE=0.90) of the Copula-GARCH approach, the results show a 36% improvement of RMSE statistics by the Copula-GARCH model compared to the OSVR model in simulating the river discharge on a monthly scale. The results also showed that by combining nonlinear ARCH models with the copula-based simulations, the reliability of the simulation results increases, which was also confirmed using the violin plot. The results also showed an increase in the accuracy of the Copula-GARCH model at the minimum and maximum values of the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi & Rasoul Mirabbasi & Yousef Ramezani & Farshad Ahmadi, 2022. "Probabilistic Assessment of Monthly River Discharge using Copula and OSVR Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(6), pages 2027-2043, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03125-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03125-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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