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Streamflow Variations in Monthly, Seasonal, Annual and Extreme Values Using Mann-Kendall, Spearmen’s Rho and Innovative Trend Analysis

Author

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  • Muhammad S. Ashraf

    (University of Engineering and Technology)

  • Ijaz Ahmad

    (University of Engineering and Technology
    China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences)

  • Noor M. Khan

    (University of Engineering and Technology
    University of Engineering and Technology)

  • Fan Zhang

    (China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Ahmed Bilal

    (Hohai University)

  • Jiali Guo

    (China Three Gorges University)

Abstract

The present study investigates the variations in the monthly, seasonal and annual streamflow timeseries at twenty (20) stations over the upper Indus river basin (UIRB) by using Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman’s rho (SR) and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods. Moreover, variations in extreme flows were investigated by dividing the daily streamflow timeseries into two categories; extremely low ( 90th percentile) flows. At monthly time scale, 240 timeseries were investigated, out of which 134, 138 and 159 timeseries manifested significant trends by using MK, SR and ITA methods, respectively. Whereas, seasonal and annual flows showed significant trends over 57, 62 and 75 timeseries based on MK, SR and ITA methods, respectively. Extremely low flows exhibited significant increasing trends over seven (07) stations and significantly decreasing trends over three (03) stations whereas, four (04) stations exhibited significantly decreasing trends in extremely high flows. Therefore, it may be concluded that the variations in the extremely low flows will be more pronounced compared to extremely high flows in the future. This may constitute constant pressure on water resources availability in the lower Indus plains where most of the country’s population is dependent on agricultural activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad S. Ashraf & Ijaz Ahmad & Noor M. Khan & Fan Zhang & Ahmed Bilal & Jiali Guo, 2021. "Streamflow Variations in Monthly, Seasonal, Annual and Extreme Values Using Mann-Kendall, Spearmen’s Rho and Innovative Trend Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 243-261, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02723-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02723-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhou, Zhigao & Wang, Lunche & Lin, Aiwen & Zhang, Ming & Niu, Zigeng, 2018. "Innovative trend analysis of solar radiation in China during 1962–2015," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 675-689.
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    2. Marta Pereira da Luz & Jefferson Lins da Silva & Edna Lizeth Higuera-Castro & Luciano Ferreira Ribeiro, 2022. "Water Availability Assessment from Power Generation Reservoirs in the Rio Grande Operated by Furnas, Brazil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-13, November.
    3. Cihangir Koycegiz & Meral Buyukyildiz, 2023. "Investigation of spatiotemporal variability of some precipitation indices in Seyhan Basin, Turkey: monotonic and sub-trend analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2211-2244, March.
    4. Pedram Pishgah Hadiyan & Ramtin Moeini & Eghbal Ehsanzadeh & Monire Karvanpour, 2022. "Trend Analysis of Water Inflow Into the Dam Reservoirs Under Future Conditions Predicted By Dynamic NAR and NARX Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(8), pages 2703-2723, June.
    5. Fabio Di Nunno & Marco De Matteo & Giovanni Izzo & Francesco Granata, 2023. "A Combined Clustering and Trends Analysis Approach for Characterizing Reference Evapotranspiration in Veneto," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-23, July.
    6. Muhammad Shehzad Ashraf & Muhammad Shahid & Muhammad Waseem & Muhammad Azam & Khalil Ur Rahman, 2023. "Assessment of Variability in Hydrological Droughts Using the Improved Innovative Trend Analysis Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, June.
    7. Solomon Temidayo Owolabi & Johanes A. Belle & Sonwabo Mazinyo, 2022. "Quantifying Intra-Catchment Streamflow Processes and Response to Climate Change within a Climatic Transitional Zone: A Case Study of Buffalo Catchment, Eastern Cape, South Africa," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-20, August.

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