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Uncertainty Analysis of Bivariate Design Flood Estimation and its Impacts on Reservoir Routing

Author

Listed:
  • Jiabo Yin

    (Wuhan University)

  • Shenglian Guo

    (Wuhan University)

  • Zhangjun Liu

    (Wuhan University)

  • Guang Yang

    (Wuhan University)

  • Yixuan Zhong

    (Wuhan University)

  • Dedi Liu

    (Wuhan University)

Abstract

The bivariate hydrological quantile estimation may inevitably induce large sampling uncertainty due to short sample size. It is crucial to quantify such uncertainty and its impacts on reservoir routing. In this study, a copula-based parametric bootstrapping uncertainty (C-PBU) method is proposed to characterize the bivariate quantile estimation uncertainty and the impact of such uncertainty on the highest reservoir water level is also investigated. The Geheyan reservoir in China is selected as a case study. Four evaluation indexes, i.e. area of confidence region, mean horizontal deviation, mean vertical deviation and average Euclidean distance, are adopted to quantify the quantile estimation uncertainty. The results indicate that the uncertainty of quantile estimation and the highest reservoir water level increases with larger return period. The 90% confidence interval (CI) of highest reservoir water level reaches 1.56 m and 2.52 m under 20-year and 50-year JRP respectively for the sample size of 100. It is also indicated that the peak over threshold (POT) sampling method contribute to uncertainty reduction comparing with the annual maximum (AM) method. This study could provide not only the point estimator of design floods and corresponding design water level, but also the rich uncertainty information (e.g. 90% confidence interval) for the references of reservoir flood risk assessment, scheduling and management.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiabo Yin & Shenglian Guo & Zhangjun Liu & Guang Yang & Yixuan Zhong & Dedi Liu, 2018. "Uncertainty Analysis of Bivariate Design Flood Estimation and its Impacts on Reservoir Routing," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1795-1809, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1904-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1904-x
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    2. Yuming Huang & Yanjie Li & Min Liu & Liang Xiao & Fuwan Gan & Jian Jiao, 2022. "Uncertainty Analysis of Flood Control Design Under Multiple Floods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1175-1189, March.
    3. Zeng, Yujie & Liu, Dedi & Guo, Shenglian & Xiong, Lihua & Liu, Pan & Chen, Jie & Yin, Jiabo & Wu, Zhenhui & Zhou, Wan, 2023. "Assessing the effects of water resources allocation on the uncertainty propagation in the water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    4. Na Li & Shenglian Guo & Feng Xiong & Jun Wang & Yuzuo Xie, 2022. "Comparative Study of Flood Coincidence Risk Estimation Methods in the Mainstream and its Tributaries," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 683-698, January.

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