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A Risk Assessment Model of Water Shortage Based on Information Diffusion Technology and its Application in Analyzing Carrying Capacity of Water Resources

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  • L. Feng
  • C. Huang

Abstract

A risk assessment model for water shortage was constructed from the risk analysis method based on the information diffusion theory. The application of this model was demonstrated in the city of Jinhua in Zhejiang Province, China. The study indicates that the present model is more stable and effective when compared with the traditional model, based on analytical results from a small sample. The risk assessment result was used to analyze the carrying capacity of water resources from an ecological angle. The author advances that the carrying capacity of water resources should be defined as the maximum bearing capacity of water resources for human activity in certain stages of social development under the sound circle of the ecological system. Further study on Jinhua was also performed in the paper, and the result indicates that water shortage in this city is not of the relevant type of water source and can classified in terms of water quality type as well as water conservancy. In order to verify the result of the theoretical investigation in the present paper, the author also simulates the dynamic changing process of carrying capacity of water resources under the condition of enforcement of the future policy in the city. The simulation uses the model of system dynamics (SD), according to the historical data of the city over twenty years and the governmental standard for comprehensively building a comfortable society by 2020. The paper simultaneously indicates that the primary scheme of unilaterally pursuing the fast development of the economy at the expense of environment and the secondary scheme of taking environmental protection as the primary goal via slowing of development of the economy are undesirable for Jinhua. Furthermore, a scheme of simultaneously giving consideration to both economic development and environmental protection should be the preferred scheme. However, if the present amount of water supply is constantly maintained in the near future, the requirement for water supply will not be satisfied under the balanced considerations of economy and environment. The carrying capacity of water resources in this region can be effectively improved only under the situation of not only strengthening the investment in environmental protection but also increasing income and reducing expenditure year after year. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Suggested Citation

  • L. Feng & C. Huang, 2008. "A Risk Assessment Model of Water Shortage Based on Information Diffusion Technology and its Application in Analyzing Carrying Capacity of Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(5), pages 621-633, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:22:y:2008:i:5:p:621-633
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-007-9182-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elfreda A. Chatman, 1986. "Diffusion theory: A review and test of a conceptual model in information diffusion," Journal of the American Society for Information Science, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 37(6), pages 377-386, November.
    2. Dirk Verschuren & Kathleen R. Laird & Brian F. Cumming, 2000. "Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6768), pages 410-414, January.
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    4. Qian Zhang & Xiujuan Liang & Zhang Fang & Tao Jiang & Yubo Wang & Lei Wang, 2016. "Urban water resources allocation and shortage risk mapping with support vector machine method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1209-1228, March.
    5. Jing Wang & Feng Fang & Qiang Zhang & Jinsong Wang & Yubi Yao & Wei Wang, 2016. "Risk evaluation of agricultural disaster impacts on food production in southern China by probability density method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1605-1634, September.
    6. Kaveh Madani & Miguel Mariño, 2009. "System Dynamics Analysis for Managing Iran’s Zayandeh-Rud River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(11), pages 2163-2187, September.
    7. Lu Hao & Xiaoyu Zhang & Shoudong Liu, 2012. "Risk assessment to China’s agricultural drought disaster in county unit," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 785-801, March.
    8. Ning Zhang & Zichen Wang & Lan Zhang & Xiao Yang, 2021. "Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Risk and the Coping Behaviors of the Government and the Public," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-20, July.
    9. Xiao-meng Song & Fan-zhe Kong & Che-sheng Zhan, 2011. "Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tianjin City of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(3), pages 857-873, February.
    10. Yansong Zhang & Yujie Wei & Yu Mao, 2023. "Sustainability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in China Based on DPSIR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
    11. Bo Li & Jingyu Su & Donghui Ma & Wei Wang, 2015. "The study on forecasting the surface rupture width under strong earthquake based on information diffusion methodology," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1871-1882, January.
    12. Zhiying Shao & Fengping Wu & Fang Li & Yue Zhao & Xia Xu, 2020. "System Dynamics Model for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impacts of Different Water Diversion Quantity from Transboundary River Basins—A Case Study of Xinjiang," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-24, December.
    13. Olya, Hossein G.T. & Alipour, Habib, 2015. "Risk assessment of precipitation and the tourism climate index," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 73-80.
    14. Yonghua Zhu & Sam Drake & Haishen Lü & Jun Xia, 2010. "Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Differences in Eco-environmental Carrying Capacity Related to Water in the Haihe River Basins, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(6), pages 1089-1105, April.
    15. Chengzu Bai & Ren Zhang & Longxia Qian & Yaning Wu, 2017. "A fuzzy graph evolved by a new adaptive Bayesian framework and its applications in natural hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(2), pages 899-918, June.
    16. Elmira Hassanzadeh & Mahdi Zarghami & Yousef Hassanzadeh, 2012. "Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 129-145, January.
    17. Qian Zhang & Xiujuan Liang & Zhang Fang & Tao Jiang & Yubo Wang & Lei Wang, 2016. "Urban water resources allocation and shortage risk mapping with support vector machine method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1209-1228, March.
    18. Jakub Żywiec & Dawid Szpak & Izabela Piegdoń & Krzysztof Boryczko & Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik & Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak & Janusz Rak, 2023. "An Approach to Assess the Water Resources Reliability and Its Management," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, January.

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