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Monitoring changes in the error distribution of autoregressive models based on Fourier methods

Author

Listed:
  • Zdeněk Hlávka
  • Marie Hušková
  • Claudia Kirch
  • Simos Meintanis

Abstract

We develop a procedure for monitoring changes in the error distribution of autoregressive time series while controlling the overall size of the sequential test. The proposed procedure, unlike standard procedures which are also referred to, utilizes the empirical characteristic function of properly estimated residuals. The limit behavior of the test statistic is investigated under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. Since the asymptotic null distribution contains unknown parameters, a bootstrap procedure is proposed in order to actually perform the test and corresponding results on the finite–sample performance of the new method are presented. As it turns out the procedure is not only able to detect distributional changes but also changes in the regression coefficient. Copyright Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Zdeněk Hlávka & Marie Hušková & Claudia Kirch & Simos Meintanis, 2012. "Monitoring changes in the error distribution of autoregressive models based on Fourier methods," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 21(4), pages 605-634, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:testjl:v:21:y:2012:i:4:p:605-634
    DOI: 10.1007/s11749-011-0265-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Einmahl, J.H.J. & McKeague, I.W., 2002. "Empirical Likelihood based on Hypothesis Testing," Other publications TiSEM 402576fa-8c0e-45e2-a394-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Tenreiro, Carlos, 2009. "On the choice of the smoothing parameter for the BHEP goodness-of-fit test," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 1038-1053, February.
    3. Gombay, Edit & Serban, Daniel, 2009. "Monitoring parameter change in time series models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(4), pages 715-725, April.
    4. Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2006. "Monitoring disruptions in financial markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 77-124.
    5. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1990. "On the asymptotic behavior of a class of nonparametric tests for a change-point problem," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 173-177, February.
    6. Jushan Bai, 1993. "On The Partial Sums Of Residuals In Autoregressive And Moving Average Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 247-260, May.
    7. Epps, T. W., 1999. "Limiting behavior of the ICF test for normality under Gram-Charlier alternatives," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 175-184, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Sangyeol & Meintanis, Simos G. & Pretorius, Charl, 2022. "Monitoring procedures for strict stationarity based on the multivariate characteristic function," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Markevičiūtė, J., 2016. "Epidemic change tests for the mean of innovations of an AR(1) process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 79-91.
    3. Marie Hušková & Zuzana Prášková, 2014. "Comments on: Extensions of some classical methods in change point analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(2), pages 265-269, June.
    4. Claudia Kirch, 2014. "Comments on: Extensions of some classical methods in change point analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(2), pages 270-275, June.
    5. Max Wornowizki & Roland Fried & Simos G. Meintanis, 2017. "Fourier methods for analyzing piecewise constant volatilities," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 101(3), pages 289-308, July.
    6. Simos G. Meintanis & Joseph Ngatchou-Wandji & James Allison, 2018. "Testing for serial independence in vector autoregressive models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1379-1410, December.
    7. Lajos Horváth & Gregory Rice, 2014. "Extensions of some classical methods in change point analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(2), pages 219-255, June.
    8. Zdeněk Hlávka & Marie Hušková & Simos G. Meintanis, 2020. "Change-point methods for multivariate time-series: paired vectorial observations," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1351-1383, August.

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