IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v87y2017i2d10.1007_s11069-017-2782-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mapping inundation probability due to increasing sea level rise along El Puerto de Santa María (SW Spain)

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Fraile-Jurado

    (Universidad de Sevilla)

  • José I. Álvarez-Francoso

    (Universidad de Sevilla)

  • Emilia Guisado-Pintado

    (Universidad de Sevilla)

  • Noela Sánchez-Carnero

    (CENPAT, CONICET)

  • José Ojeda-Zújar

    (Universidad de Sevilla)

  • Stephen P. Leatherman

    (Florida International University)

Abstract

Global sea levels have risen through the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This rise will almost certainly continue and probably accelerate during the rest of the twenty-first century, albeit there is strong disagreement about the range of future sea level rise due to uncertainties regarding scenarios and emission of greenhouse gasses. Although the impacts of sea level rise are diverse, inundation during high tides is one of the most obvious and immediate consequences. A probabilistic methodology for mapping the inundation hazard because of sea level rise has been applied to the coast of El Puerto de Santa María in the province of Cádiz in southwest Spain. This methodology involves a step forward since represents the full range of probabilities, associated with each scenario of sea level rise considered, and thus offers a more realistic view of the probability of inundation in each area. Results show large differences in the spatial distribution of probable inundation in urban areas and wetlands leading to different consequences for management actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Fraile-Jurado & José I. Álvarez-Francoso & Emilia Guisado-Pintado & Noela Sánchez-Carnero & José Ojeda-Zújar & Stephen P. Leatherman, 2017. "Mapping inundation probability due to increasing sea level rise along El Puerto de Santa María (SW Spain)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(2), pages 581-598, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:87:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2782-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2782-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-017-2782-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-017-2782-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dasgupta, Susmita & Laplante, Benoit & Meisner, Craig & Wheeler, David & Jianping Yan, 2007. "The impact of sea level rise on developing countries : a comparative analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4136, The World Bank.
    2. Erika E. Lentz & E. Robert Thieler & Nathaniel G. Plant & Sawyer R. Stippa & Radley M. Horton & Dean B. Gesch, 2016. "Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 696-700, July.
    3. Hannah Cooper & Qi Chen, 2013. "Incorporating uncertainty of future sea-level rise estimates into vulnerability assessment: A case study in Kahului, Maui," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 635-647, December.
    4. O.E. Frihy, 2003. "The Nile delta-Alexandria coast: vulnerability to sea-level rise, consequences and adaptation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 115-138, June.
    5. Matthew L. Kirwan & Stijn Temmerman & Emily E. Skeehan & Glenn R. Guntenspergen & Sergio Fagherazzi, 2016. "Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 253-260, March.
    6. John Hunter, 2012. "A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 239-252, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Justine Sarrau & Khaula Alkaabi & Saif Obaid Bin Hdhaiba, 2024. "Exploring GIS Techniques in Sea Level Change Studies: A Comprehensive Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-22, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rania A. Bekheet & Mohamed El Raey & Alaa-El-Din Yassin, 2017. "The crestline approach for assessing the development of coastal flooding due to sea level rise," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(7), pages 1113-1130, October.
    2. Ibrahim A. Elshinnawy & Abdulrazak H. Almaliki, 2021. "Vulnerability Assessment for Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Systems of Gamasa Ras El Bar Area, Nile Delta, Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Omran Frihy & Mahmoud El-Sayed, 2013. "Vulnerability risk assessment and adaptation to climate change induced sea level rise along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(8), pages 1215-1237, December.
    4. B. Sudhakara Reddy & Gaudenz B. Assenza, 2008. "The Great climate debate : A Developing country perspective," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-008, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Kwasi Appeaning Addo, 2015. "Monitoring sea level rise-induced hazards along the coast of Accra in Ghana," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(2), pages 1293-1307, September.
    6. Frankie St. Amand & Daniel H. Sandweiss & Alice R. Kelley, 2020. "Climate-driven migration: prioritizing cultural resources threatened by secondary impacts of climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 1761-1781, September.
    7. P. Ward & M. Marfai & F. Yulianto & D. Hizbaron & J. Aerts, 2011. "Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 899-916, March.
    8. Fant, Charles & Gebretsadik, Yohannes & Strzepek, Kenneth, 2012. "Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation, Crops and Hydropower in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 079, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Alexis S. Pascaris & Joshua M. Pearce, 2020. "U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emission Bottlenecks: Prioritization of Targets for Climate Liability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-28, August.
    10. Rong, Fang, 2010. "Understanding developing country stances on post-2012 climate change negotiations: Comparative analysis of Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4582-4591, August.
    11. Kousky, Carolyn & Rostapshova, Olga & Toman, Michael & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2009. "Responding to threats of climate change mega-catastrophes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5127, The World Bank.
    12. Matthias Garschagen, 2013. "Resilience and organisational institutionalism from a cross-cultural perspective: an exploration based on urban climate change adaptation in Vietnam," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(1), pages 25-46, May.
    13. Ryan L Sriver & Robert J Lempert & Per Wikman-Svahn & Klaus Keller, 2018. "Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-35, February.
    14. Klaus Desmet & Robert E. Kopp & Scott A. Kulp & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Michael Oppenheimer & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2021. "Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 444-486, April.
    15. Yoro Diallo & Sébastien Marchand & Etienne Espagne, 2019. "Impacts of extreme events on technical efficiency in Vietnamese agriculture," CIRED Working Papers halshs-02080285, HAL.
    16. Dasgupta, Susmita & Kamal, Farhana Akhter & Khan, Zahirul Huque & Choudhury, Sharifuzzaman & Nishat, Ainun, 2014. "River salinity and climate change : evidence from coastal Bangladesh," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6817, The World Bank.
    17. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    18. Adam, Antonis & Tsarsitalidou, Sofia, 2022. "The effect of international development association's (IDA) aid on conflict. A fuzzy regression discontinuity approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Sangam Shrestha & Proloy Deb & Thi Bui, 2016. "Adaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate change in Central Vietnam," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 15-37, January.
    20. Guandong Li & Torbjörn E. Törnqvist & Sönke Dangendorf, 2024. "Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:87:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2782-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.