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Simulation of large earthquakes and its implications on earthquake insurance rates: a case study in Bursa region (Turkey)

Author

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  • Barış Ünal

    (Middle East Technical University)

  • Ayşegül Askan

    (Middle East Technical University)

  • A. Sevtap Selcuk-Kestel

    (Middle East Technical University)

Abstract

Ground motion intensity parameters of past and potential earthquakes are required for a range of purposes including earthquake insurance practice. In regions with no or sparse earthquake recordings, most of the available methods generate only peak ground motion parameters. For cases where full ground motion time histories are required, simulations that consider fault rupture processes become necessary. In this study, a major novel use of simulated ground motions is presented in insurance premium calculations which also require ground motion intensity measures that are not always available through observations. For this purpose, potential earthquakes in Bursa are simulated using stochastic finite-fault simulation method with dynamic corner frequency model. To ensure simulations with reliable synthetic ground motions, input parameters are derived from regional data. Regional model parameters are verified by comparisons against the observations as well as ground motion prediction equations. Next, a potential large magnitude event in Bursa is simulated. Distribution of peak ground motion parameters and time histories at selected locations are obtained. From these parameters, the corresponding Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI) are estimated. Later, these MMIs are used as the main ground motion parameter in damage probability matrices (DPM). Return period of the scenario earthquake is obtained from the previous regional seismic hazard studies. Finally, insurance rates for Bursa region are determined with implementation of two new approaches in the literature. The probability of the scenario event and the expected mean damage ratios (MDR) from the corresponding DPMs are used, and the results are compared to Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) rates. Results show that insurance premiums can be effectively computed using simulated ground motions in the absence of real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Barış Ünal & Ayşegül Askan & A. Sevtap Selcuk-Kestel, 2017. "Simulation of large earthquakes and its implications on earthquake insurance rates: a case study in Bursa region (Turkey)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(1), pages 215-236, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:85:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2578-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2578-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Yucemen, 2005. "Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Insurance Rates for Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 35(2), pages 291-313, June.
    2. Rob Kaas & Marc Goovaerts & Jan Dhaene & Michel Denuit, 2008. "Modern Actuarial Risk Theory," Springer Books, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-540-70998-5, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fatma Yerlikaya-Özkurt & Aysegul Askan, 2020. "Prediction of potential seismic damage using classification and regression trees: a case study on earthquake damage databases from Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3163-3180, September.
    2. Tamara Lukić & Jelena Dunjić & Bojan Đerčan & Ivana Penjišević & Saša Milosavljević & Milka Bubalo-Živković & Milica Solarević, 2018. "Local Resilience to Natural Hazards in Serbia. Case Study: The West Morava River Valley," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, August.

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