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Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey

Author

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  • Fatih Tosunoglu

    (Erzurum Technical University)

  • Ibrahim Can

    (Atatürk University)

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to model the joint probability distributions of meteorological droughts of Turkey using copulas. Monthly rainfall data covering of period 1966–2006 from 173 gauge stations uniformly distributed across Turkey is considered for this aim. The principal component analysis is used to identify homogenous rainfall regions of Turkey. For meteorological drought analysis of the monthly rainfall series, standardized precipitation index method is used and the crucial drought characteristics, namely drought duration and severity, are determined. Marginal probability distributions of these characteristics are identified by fitting Weibull, two-parameter Lognormal, generalized Pareto, Gamma, Normal, Logistic, log-Logistic, generalized Extreme Value and Exponential distributions. Based on the Chi-square (χ 2) goodness-of-fit test, the two-parameter Lognormal distribution is indicated as the best suitable for the duration series, whereas the Gamma, Weibull and generalized Pareto distributions show better fit for the severity series. As these drought characteristics are highly correlated and follow different probability distributions, copula functions are used to construct the joint distribution function of drought duration and severity series. Four types of bivariate copulas (i.e., Frank, Clayton, Gumbel–Hougaard and Ali–Mikhail–Haq) are evaluated for modeling and the best-fit copula for each homogenous region is then employed to estimate conditional probability properties and joint return periods of the drought characteristics. The drought properties of each region are hereby comprehensively explained and the results indicated here can be helpful in the assessment of the adequacies of water supply systems under drought conditions in all regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:82:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2253-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2253-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Ying Li & Wei Gu & Weijia Cui & Zhiyun Chang & Yingjun Xu, 2015. "Exploration of copula function use in crop meteorological drought risk analysis: a case study of winter wheat in Beijing, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1289-1303, June.
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    11. Fadhilah Yusof & Foo Hui-Mean & Jamaludin Suhaila & Zulkifli Yusof, 2013. "Characterisation of Drought Properties with Bivariate Copula Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4183-4207, September.
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    3. Sajjad Abdollahi & Ali Mohammad Akhoond-Ali & Rasoul Mirabbasi & Jan Franklin Adamowski, 2019. "Probabilistic Event Based Rainfall-Runoff Modeling Using Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(11), pages 3799-3814, September.
    4. Tosunoğlu, Fatih, 2018. "Accurate estimation of T year extreme wind speeds by considering different model selection criterions and different parameter estimation methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 813-824.
    5. Muhammet Yılmaz & Harun Alp & Fatih Tosunoğlu & Ömer Levend Aşıkoğlu & Ebru Eriş, 2022. "Impact of climate change on meteorological and hydrological droughts for Upper Coruh Basin, Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1039-1063, June.
    6. Jin Huang & Fangmin Zhang & Yan Xue & Qi Li, 2016. "Recent changes of extreme dryness/wetness pattern and its possible impact on rice productivity in Jiangsu Province, southeast China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1967-1979, December.
    7. Ibrahim Halil Deger & Musa Esıt & Mehmet Ishak Yuce, 2023. "Univariate and Bivariate Hydrological Drought Frequency Analysis by Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(12), pages 4881-4907, September.
    8. Emre Topçu, 2022. "Appraisal of seasonal drought characteristics in Turkey during 1925–2016 with the standardized precipitation index and copula approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 697-723, May.
    9. Vergni, L. & Todisco, F. & Di Lena, B. & Mannocchi, F., 2020. "Bivariate analysis of drought duration and severity for irrigation planning," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

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