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Hurricane winds over the North Atlantic: spatial analysis and sensitivity to ocean temperature

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  • Jill Trepanier

Abstract

Hurricanes pose serious threats to people and infrastructure along the United States Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The risk of the strongest hurricane winds over the North Atlantic basin is analyzed using a statistical model from extreme value theory and a tessellation of the domain. The spatial variation in model parameters is shown, and an estimate of the limiting strength of hurricanes at locations across the basin is provided. Quantitative analysis of the variation is done using a geographically weighted regression with regional sea surface temperature as a covariate. It is found that as sea surface temperatures increase, the expected hurricane wind speed for a given return period also increases. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Jill Trepanier, 2014. "Hurricane winds over the North Atlantic: spatial analysis and sensitivity to ocean temperature," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1733-1747, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:3:p:1733-1747
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0985-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cooley, Daniel & Nychka, Douglas & Naveau, Philippe, 2007. "Bayesian Spatial Modeling of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 824-840, September.
    2. Ann-Margaret Esnard & Alka Sapat & Diana Mitsova, 2011. "An index of relative displacement risk to hurricanes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(2), pages 833-859, November.
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