IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v64y2012i1p903-933.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of human risks due to dam-break floods—part 1: a new model based on Bayesian networks

Author

Listed:
  • M. Peng
  • L. Zhang

Abstract

Dam breaks have catastrophic consequences for human lives. This paper presents a new human risk analysis model (HURAM) using Bayesian networks for estimating human risks due to dam-break floods. A Bayesian network is constructed according to a logic structure of loss-of-life mechanisms. The nodes (parameters) and the arcs (inter-relationships) of the network are quantified with historical data, existing models and physical analyses. A dataset of 343 dam-failure cases with records of fatality is compiled for this purpose. Comparison between two existing models and the new model is made to test the new model. Finally, sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the important parameters that lead to loss of life. The new model is able to take into account a large number of important parameters and their inter-relationships in a systematic structure; include the uncertainties of these parameters and their inter-relationships; incorporate information derived from physical analysis, empirical models and historical data; and update the predictions when information in specific cases is available. The application of this model to the study of human risks in a specific dam-break case is presented in a companion paper. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • M. Peng & L. Zhang, 2012. "Analysis of human risks due to dam-break floods—part 1: a new model based on Bayesian networks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(1), pages 903-933, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:64:y:2012:i:1:p:903-933
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0275-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-012-0275-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-012-0275-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aimilia Pistrika & Sebastiaan Jonkman, 2010. "Damage to residential buildings due to flooding of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 54(2), pages 413-434, August.
    2. S. Jonkman & J. Vrijling & A. Vrouwenvelder, 2008. "Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 353-389, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dongjing Huang & Zhongbo Yu & Yiping Li & Dawei Han & Lili Zhao & Qi Chu, 2017. "Calculation method and application of loss of life caused by dam break in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(1), pages 39-57, January.
    2. Gamse, Sonja & Zhou, Wan-Huan & Tan, Fang & Yuen, Ka-Veng & Oberguggenberger, Michael, 2018. "Hydrostatic-season-time model updating using Bayesian model class selection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 40-50.
    3. Mohammad Amin Hariri-Ardebili & Upmanu Lall, 2021. "Superposed Natural Hazards and Pandemics: Breaking Dams, Floods, and COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-27, August.
    4. Pei, Liang & Chen, Chen & He, Kun & Lu, Xiang, 2022. "System reliability of a gravity dam-foundation system using Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    5. Pengxia Zhao & Tie Li & Biao Wang & Ming Li & Yu Wang & Xiahui Guo & Yue Yu, 2022. "The Scenario Construction and Evolution Method of Casualties in Liquid Ammonia Leakage Based on Bayesian Network," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Xingbo Zhou & Zuyu Chen & Jianping Zhou & Xinlei Guo & Xiaohu Du & Qiang Zhang, 2020. "A quantitative risk analysis model for cascade reservoirs overtopping: principle and application," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 249-277, October.
    7. Alessandro Pagano & Raffaele Giordano & Ivan Portoghese & Umberto Fratino & Michele Vurro, 2014. "A Bayesian vulnerability assessment tool for drinking water mains under extreme events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 2193-2227, December.
    8. Hui Hu & Jianfeng Zhang & Tao Li & Jie Yang, 2020. "A simplified mathematical model for the dam-breach hydrograph for three reservoir geometries following a sudden full dam break," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1515-1540, July.
    9. Wang, Te & Li, Zongkun & Ge, Wei & Zhang, Hua & Zhang, Yadong & Sun, Heqiang & Jiao, Yutie, 2023. "Risk consequence assessment of dam breach in cascade reservoirs considering risk transmission and superposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    10. Wei Ge & Zongkun Li & Wei Li & Meimei Wu & Juanjuan Li & Yipeng Pan, 2020. "Risk evaluation of dam-break environmental impacts based on the set pair analysis and cloud model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1641-1653, November.
    11. Rui Liu & Yun Chen & Jianping Wu & Lei Gao & Damian Barrett & Tingbao Xu & Xiaojuan Li & Linyi Li & Chang Huang & Jia Yu, 2017. "Integrating Entropy‐Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 756-773, April.
    12. Guanjie He & Junrui Chai & Yuan Qin & Zengguang Xu & Shouyi Li, 2020. "Coupled Model of Variable Fuzzy Sets and the Analytic Hierarchy Process and its Application to the Social and Environmental Impact Evaluation of Dam Breaks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2677-2697, July.
    13. El-Awady, Ahmed & Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy, 2021. "Integration of simulation and Markov Chains to support Bayesian Networks for probabilistic failure analysis of complex systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    14. Chi-Feng Chen & Chung-Ming Liu, 2014. "The definition of urban stormwater tolerance threshold and its conceptual estimation: an example from Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 173-190, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf & Alfred Kalyanapu & Eun-Sung Chung, 2015. "Evaluating the Effects of Inundation Duration and Velocity on Selection of Flood Management Alternatives Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2543-2561, June.
    2. Borowska-Stefańska, Marta & Kobojek, Sławomir & Kowalski, Michał & Lewicki, Marek & Tomalski, Przemysław & Wiśniewski, Szymon, 2021. "Changes in the spatial development of flood hazard areas in Poland between 1990 and 2018 in the light of legal conditions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. R. De Risi & F. Jalayer & F. De Paola & I. Iervolino & M. Giugni & M. Topa & E. Mbuya & A. Kyessi & G. Manfredi & P. Gasparini, 2013. "Flood risk assessment for informal settlements," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 1003-1032, October.
    4. Manuela Mauro & Karin Bruijn & Matteo Meloni, 2012. "Quantitative methods for estimating flood fatalities: towards the introduction of loss-of-life estimation in the assessment of flood risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 1083-1113, September.
    5. George R. Priest & Laura L. Stimely & Nathan J. Wood & Ian P. Madin & Rudie J. Watzig, 2016. "Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1031-1056, January.
    6. Neslihan Beden & Asli Ulke Keskin, 2021. "Estimation of the local financial costs of flood damage with different methodologies in Unye (Ordu), Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(3), pages 2835-2854, September.
    7. Zhenqiang Wang & Gaofeng Jia, 2021. "A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 2045-2071, January.
    8. Nathan Wood & Mathew Schmidtlein, 2013. "Community variations in population exposure to near-field tsunami hazards as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1603-1628, February.
    9. R. Jelínek & E. Krausmann & M. González & J. Álvarez-Gómez & J. Birkmann & T. Welle, 2012. "Approaches for tsunami risk assessment and application to the city of Cádiz, Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 273-293, January.
    10. David-Jan Jansen, 2023. "Homeowners and flood risk: A disconnect between awareness and actions?," Working Papers 791, DNB.
    11. Mehdi Karbasi & Alireza Shokoohi & Bahram Saghafian, 2018. "Loss of Life Estimation Due to Flash Floods in Residential Areas using a Regional Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(14), pages 4575-4589, November.
    12. Zoran Vojinovic & Michael Hammond & Daria Golub & Sianee Hirunsalee & Sutat Weesakul & Vorawit Meesuk & Neiler Medina & Arlex Sanchez & Sisira Kumara & Michael Abbott, 2016. "Holistic approach to flood risk assessment in areas with cultural heritage: a practical application in Ayutthaya, Thailand," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 589-616, March.
    13. Non Okumura & Sebastiaan N. Jonkman & Miguel Esteban & Bas Hofland & Tomoya Shibayama, 2017. "A method for tsunami risk assessment: a case study for Kamakura, Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1451-1472, September.
    14. Nathan Wood & Mathew Schmidtlein & Jeff Peters, 2014. "Changes in population evacuation potential for tsunami hazards in Seward, Alaska, since the 1964 Good Friday earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(2), pages 1031-1053, January.
    15. Animesh Gain & Vahid Mojtahed & Claudio Biscaro & Stefano Balbi & Carlo Giupponi, 2015. "An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(3), pages 1499-1530, December.
    16. Zoran Vojinovic & Michael Hammond & Daria Golub & Sianee Hirunsalee & Sutat Weesakul & Vorawit Meesuk & Neiler Medina & Arlex Sanchez & Sisira Kumara & Michael Abbott, 2016. "Holistic approach to flood risk assessment in areas with cultural heritage: a practical application in Ayutthaya, Thailand," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 589-616, March.
    17. Pini Wijayanti & Xueqin Zhu & Petra Hellegers & Yus Budiyono & Ekko C. van Ierland, 2017. "Estimation of river flood damages in Jakarta, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(3), pages 1059-1079, April.
    18. Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2014. "Release of hazardous substances in flood events: Damage model for horizontal cylindrical vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 125-145.
    19. Syeda Nadia Kiran & Muhammad Farooq Iqbal & Irfan Mahmood, 2023. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on flooding under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 scenarios in the river Chenab, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 1005-1033, May.
    20. Showmitra Kumar Sarkar & Saifullah Bin Ansar & Khondaker Mohammed Mohiuddin Ekram & Mehedi Hasan Khan & Swapan Talukdar & Mohd Waseem Naikoo & Abu Reza Towfiqul Islam & Atiqur Rahman & Amir Mosavi, 2022. "Developing Robust Flood Susceptibility Model with Small Numbers of Parameters in Highly Fertile Regions of Northwest Bangladesh for Sustainable Flood and Agriculture Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-23, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:64:y:2012:i:1:p:903-933. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.