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Designing a long-term flood risk management plan for the Scheldt estuary using a risk-based approach

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  • Steven Broekx
  • Steven Smets
  • Inge Liekens
  • Dirk Bulckaen
  • Leo Nocker

Abstract

The Scheldt is a tidal river that originates in France and flows through Belgium and the Netherlands. The tides create significant flood risks in both the Flemish region in Belgium and the Netherlands. Due to sea level rise and economic development, flood risks will increase during this century. This is the main reason for the Flemish government to update its flood risk management plan. For this purpose, the Flemish government requested a cost-benefit analysis of flood protection measures, considering long-term developments. Measures evaluated include a storm surge barrier, dyke heightening and additional floodplains with or without the development of wetlands. Some of these measures affect the flood risk in both countries. As policies concerning the limitation of flood risk differ significantly between the Netherlands and Flanders, distinctive methodologies were used to estimate the impacts of measures on flood risk. A risk-based approach was applied for Flanders by calculating the impacts of flood damage at different levels of recurrence, for the base year (2000) and in case of a sea level rise of 60 cm by 2100. Policy within the Netherlands stipulates a required minimal protection level along the Scheldt against storms with a recurrence period of 1 in 4,000 years. It was estimated how flood protection measures would delay further dyke heightening, which is foreseen as protection levels are presently decreasing due to rising sea levels. Impacts of measures (safety benefits) consist of delays in further dyke heightening. The results illustrate the importance of sea level rise. Flood risks increased fivefolds when a sea level rise of 60 cm was applied. Although more drastic measures such as a storm surge barrier near Antwerp offer more protection for very extreme storms, a combination of dykes and floodplains can offer higher benefits at lower costs. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Broekx & Steven Smets & Inge Liekens & Dirk Bulckaen & Leo Nocker, 2011. "Designing a long-term flood risk management plan for the Scheldt estuary using a risk-based approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 57(2), pages 245-266, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:57:y:2011:i:2:p:245-266
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-010-9610-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Groot, Rudolf S. & Wilson, Matthew A. & Boumans, Roelof M. J., 2002. "A typology for the classification, description and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 393-408, June.
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    2. Boerema, A. & Van Passel, S. & Meire, P., 2018. "Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Ecosystem Management With Ecosystem Services: From Theory to Practice," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 207-218.
    3. Octavio Rojas & María Mardones & Carolina Martínez & Luis Flores & Katia Sáez & Alberto Araneda, 2018. "Flooding in Central Chile: Implications of Tides and Sea Level Increase in the 21st Century," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, November.

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