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A comparison of selected global disaster risk assessment results

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  • Silvia Mosquera-Machado
  • Maxx Dilley

Abstract

We compare country risk rankings derived from two recently published global disaster risk analyses. One set of country rankings is based on the Disaster Risk Index (DRI) developed by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Division of Early Warning and Assessment Global Resource Information Database project under a contract to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The other is based on an index of disaster mortality risk developed by the Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots project implemented by Columbia University, the World Bank and associated partners. We convert data from these sources into two comparable indexes of disaster mortality risk and rank countries according to the resulting values for a set of natural hazards common to both studies. The country rankings are moderately correlated, ranging from .41 to .56 for individual hazards to .31 for multi-hazard mortality risks. We identify the top 25 countries according to the mortality risk values we recomputed from each study’s results to show the degree to which countries are highly ranked in common. The numbers of countries common to both lists for individual hazards range from 7 to 16 out of 25. The correspondence among the top 25 ranked countries is lowest for earthquakes and floods. Only 6 out of 25 countries are common to both lists in the multi-hazard case. We suggest that while the convergence in the results for some hazards is encouraging, more work is needed to improve data and methods, particularly with respect to assessing the role of vulnerability in the creation of risk and the calculation of multi-hazard risks. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Mosquera-Machado & Maxx Dilley, 2009. "A comparison of selected global disaster risk assessment results," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 48(3), pages 439-456, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:48:y:2009:i:3:p:439-456
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-008-9272-0
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    1. repec:idb:brikps:publication-detail,7101.html?id=68568 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Maxx Dilley & Robert S. Chen & Uwe Deichmann & Arthur L. Lerner-Lam & Margaret Arnold, 2005. "Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7376, December.
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    2. Baoyin Liu & Yim Siu & Gordon Mitchell & Wei Xu, 2013. "Exceedance probability of multiple natural hazards: risk assessment in China’s Yangtze River Delta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 2039-2055, December.
    3. Debarati Guha-Sapir & Jose Rodriguez-Llanes & Thomas Jakubicka, 2011. "Using disaster footprints, population databases and GIS to overcome persistent problems for human impact assessment in flood events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(3), pages 845-852, September.
    4. Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Robinson, Jackie & Kaneko, Shinji & Komatsu, Satoru, 2013. "Estimating the value of economic benefits associated with adaptation to climate change in a developing country: A case study of improvements in tropical cyclone warning services," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 117-128.
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    6. Wei Xu & Li Zhuo & Jing Zheng & Yi Ge & Zhihui Gu & Yugang Tian, 2016. "Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-12, February.

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