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Variability of Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship in a 1000-year MRI-CGCM2.2 simulation

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  • Akio Kitoh

Abstract

There is a close relationship between interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (drought conditions over India accompany warm ENSO events and vice versa). However, recent observations suggest a weakening of this ENSO-monsoon relationship that may be linked to global warming. We report here an analysis of the ENSO-monsoon relationship within the framework of a 1000-year control simulation of the MRI-coupled general circulation model (GCM), MRI-CGCM2.2. An overall correlation between the June-July-August (JJA) Nino3.4 sea surface temperature and the JJA Indian monsoon rainfall is –0.39, with reasonable circulation characteristics associated with the modeled ENSO. The simulated ENSO-monsoon relationship reveals long-term variations, from –0.71 to +0.07, in moving 31-year windows. This modulation in the ENSO-monsoon relationship is associated with decadal variability of the climate system. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Akio Kitoh, 2007. "Variability of Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship in a 1000-year MRI-CGCM2.2 simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(2), pages 261-272, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:42:y:2007:i:2:p:261-272
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-006-9092-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. H. Saji & B. N. Goswami & P. N. Vinayachandran & T. Yamagata, 1999. "A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6751), pages 360-363, September.
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