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Investigating the multiscale teleconnections of Madden–Julian oscillation and monthly rainfall using time-dependent intrinsic cross-correlation

Author

Listed:
  • Kavya Johny

    (Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, Kochi Campus)

  • Maya L. Pai

    (Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, Kochi Campus)

  • S. Adarsh

    (TKM College of Engineering)

Abstract

This study proposes a novel ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) time-dependent intrinsic cross-correlation (TDICC)-coupled framework to investigate the correlation between monthly rainfall over India and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in different timescales. EEMD first decomposes the monthly rainfall and MJO time series into different orthogonal modes namely intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residue with specific periodicity representing the physical processes governing, independently. Then, the significant modes that can be used for rainfall predictions are extracted by executing time-dependent intrinsic correlation (TDIC) which follows the concept of running correlation analysis. Finally, the lags significant for rainfall predictions at different scales are identified by invoking the TDICC analysis considering different time lags up to 12 months. Among the ten MJO indices considered in the study, indices 2 to 5 (longitudes 100° E, 120° E, 140° E, 160° E) are strongly negatively correlated while MJO indices 8 to 10 (longitudes 10° W, 20° E and 70° E) are found to be strongly positively correlated with the rainfall at all the timescales. Contrary to this similarity in the nature of correlations, the correlation patterns can differ with lags both in the nature and strength of associations. The mode of rainfall at annual scale for all the indices can be predicted with lags 1, 2, 5–8 while the mode of highest frequency can be predicted with lag 1 information alone. For the prediction of the low-frequency IMFs (mostly 5th IMF onward) of all the indices, all the 12 lags are found to be significant, implied by the unchanging and stable lagged correlation pattern.

Suggested Citation

  • Kavya Johny & Maya L. Pai & S. Adarsh, 2022. "Investigating the multiscale teleconnections of Madden–Julian oscillation and monthly rainfall using time-dependent intrinsic cross-correlation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1795-1822, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:112:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05249-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05249-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karumuri Ashok & N. Saji, 2007. "On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(2), pages 273-285, August.
    2. N. H. Saji & B. N. Goswami & P. N. Vinayachandran & T. Yamagata, 1999. "A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6751), pages 360-363, September.
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