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Perceived and actual risks of drought: household and expert views from the lower Teesta River Basin of northern Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Roquia Salam

    (Begum Rokeya University)

  • Bonosri Ghose

    (Begum Rokeya University)

  • Badhon Kumar Shill

    (Begum Rokeya University)

  • Md. Aminul Islam

    (Begum Rokeya University)

  • Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam

    (Begum Rokeya University)

  • Md. Abdus Sattar

    (Patuakhali Science and Technology University)

  • G. M. Monirul Alam

    (Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University)

  • Bayes Ahmed

    (University College London (UCL))

Abstract

Disaster risk perception and risk appraisal are essential in formulating an appropriate disaster risk reduction policy. This study examines the actual vs perceived drought risks by constructing risk indices at the household and expert levels using survey data from the lower Teesta River Basin in northern Bangladesh. The survey data were collected from 450 farmers using a structured questionnaire conducted between August and September 2019. A composite drought risk index was developed to understand households’ perceived and actual risks in the designated areas. The results show that the actual and perceived risk values differ significantly among the three case study sites locally known as Ganai, Ismail, and Par Sekh Sundar. The risk levels also differ significantly across the households’ gender, income, occupation, and educational attainment. People with insolvent socioeconomic status are more prone to drought risk compared to others. Results also reveal that the mean level of perceived risk agrees well with the actual risk, whereas females perceive comparatively higher risk than their male counterparts. Expert views on drought risk are similar to the individual household level perceived risk. The outcomes of this study would assist the policymakers and disaster managers to understand the concrete risk scenarios and take timely disaster risk reduction actions for ensuring a drought-resistant society.

Suggested Citation

  • Roquia Salam & Bonosri Ghose & Badhon Kumar Shill & Md. Aminul Islam & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Md. Abdus Sattar & G. M. Monirul Alam & Bayes Ahmed, 2021. "Perceived and actual risks of drought: household and expert views from the lower Teesta River Basin of northern Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(3), pages 2569-2587, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:108:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04789-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04789-4
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    2. Emileva, Begaiym & Kuhn, Lena & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Glauben, Thomas, 2023. "The role of smartphone-based weather information acquisition on climate change perception accuracy: Cross-country evidence from Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Uzbekistan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 41, pages 1-1.
    3. Abdullah Mamun & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & G. M. Monirul Alam & Md Nazirul Islam Sarker & Michael Odei Erdiaw-Kwasie & Humnath Bhandari & Javed Mallick, 2023. "Livelihood vulnerability of char land communities to climate change and natural hazards in Bangladesh: an application of livelihood vulnerability index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1411-1437, January.
    4. Javed Mallick & Roquia Salam & Ruhul Amin & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Aznarul Islam & Md. Nur Alam Siddik & G. M. Monirul Alam, 2022. "Assessing factors affecting drought, earthquake, and flood risk perception: empirical evidence from Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1633-1656, June.
    5. Mondol, Md Anarul Haque & Zhu, Xuan & Dunkerley, David & Henley, Benjamin J., 2022. "Changing occurrence of crop water surplus or deficit and the impact of irrigation: An analysis highlighting consequences for rice production in Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).

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