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Probing Option Prices for Information

Author

Listed:
  • Hélyette Geman

    (University of London
    ESSEC)

  • Dilip B. Madan

    (University of Maryland)

  • Marc Yor

    (Université Paris VI)

Abstract

We present a methodology for extracting information from option prices when the market is viewed as knowledgeable. By expanding the information filtration judiciously and determining conditional characteristic functions for the log of the stock price, we obtain option pricing formulae which when fit to market data may reveal this information. In particular, we consider probing option prices for knowledge of the future stock price, instantaneous volatility, and the asymptotic dividend stream. Additionally the bridge laws developed are also useful for simulation based on stratified sampling that conditions on the terminal values of paths.

Suggested Citation

  • Hélyette Geman & Dilip B. Madan & Marc Yor, 2007. "Probing Option Prices for Information," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 115-131, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:9:y:2007:i:1:d:10.1007_s11009-006-9005-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-006-9005-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dorje C. Brody & Mark H. A. Davis & Robyn L. Friedman & Lane P. Hughston, 2008. "Informed Traders," Papers 0807.1253, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2008.
    2. Hoyle, Edward & Hughston, Lane P. & Macrina, Andrea, 2011. "Lévy random bridges and the modelling of financial information," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 121(4), pages 856-884, April.

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