IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jtrsec/v11y2018i3d10.1007_s12198-018-0196-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk and economic assessment of U.S. aviation security for passenger-borne bomb attacks

Author

Listed:
  • Mark G. Stewart

    (The University of Newcastle)

  • John Mueller

    (Ohio State University
    Cato Institute)

Abstract

A systems reliability analysis is developed that includes 18 layers of security that might disrupt a terrorist organisation undeterred and intent on downing an airliner with a passenger-borne bomb. Overall, they reduce the risk that such an attack would be successful by 93%. The odds that a lone wolf will be successful in such an attack are considerably lower. This level of risk reduction is very robust: security remains high even when the disruption rates that make it up are varied considerably. The same model is used to explore the risk reduction of aviation security measures in other western countries and in Israel. The benefit-to-cost ratio is then calculated for most of the security measures. It considers the costs and the risk reduction of the layer, the losses from a successful terrorist attack, and the attack probability. It is found that the Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF) and police, PreCheck, Visible Intermodal Protection Response (VIPR) teams, and canines pass a cost-benefit assessment. However, it finds that air marshals and behavior detection officers, at a combined cost of nearly $1.3 billion per year, fail to be cost-effective. Accordingly, there are likely to be spending reductions that could be made with little or no consequent reduction in security.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark G. Stewart & John Mueller, 2018. "Risk and economic assessment of U.S. aviation security for passenger-borne bomb attacks," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 117-136, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jtrsec:v:11:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s12198-018-0196-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s12198-018-0196-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12198-018-0196-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12198-018-0196-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Susan E. Martonosi & Arnold Barnett, 2006. "How Effective Is Security Screening of Airline Passengers?," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 545-552, December.
    2. Laura A. McLay & Adrian J. Lee & Sheldon H. Jacobson, 2010. "Risk-Based Policies for Airport Security Checkpoint Screening," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(3), pages 333-349, August.
    3. Mark G. Stewart & John Mueller, 2017. "Risk and economic assessment of expedited passenger screening and TSA PreCheck," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Detlof von Winterfeldt & Terrence M. O'Sullivan, 2006. "Should We Protect Commercial Airplanes Against Surface-to-Air Missile Attacks by Terrorists?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(2), pages 63-75, June.
    5. John Mueller & Mark G. Stewart, 2014. "Evaluating Counterterrorism Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 237-248, Summer.
    6. Henry H. Willis & Tom LaTourrette, 2008. "Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit‐Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 325-339, April.
    7. Sheldon H. Jacobson & Tamana Karnani & John E. Kobza & Lynsey Ritchie, 2006. "A Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Alternative Device Configurations for Aviation‐Checked Baggage Security Screening," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(2), pages 297-310, April.
    8. Lee, Adrian J. & Jacobson, Sheldon H., 2011. "The impact of aviation checkpoint queues on optimizing security screening effectiveness," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 900-911.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lorraine Mazerolle & Adrian Cherney & Elizabeth Eggins & Lorelei Hine & Angela Higginson, 2021. "Multiagency programs with police as a partner for reducing radicalisation to violence," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), June.
    2. David Anderson, 2021. "Optimising multi-layered security screening," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 249-273, December.
    3. Yan, Xihong & Ren, Xiaorong & Nie, Xiaofeng, 2022. "A budget allocation model for domestic airport network protection," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    4. Michal Klenka, 2019. "Major incidents that shaped aviation security," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 39-56, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark G. Stewart & John Mueller, 2017. "Risk and economic assessment of expedited passenger screening and TSA PreCheck," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, June.
    2. Mark G. Stewart & John Mueller, 2013. "Terrorism Risks and Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Aviation Security," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(5), pages 893-908, May.
    3. Hunt, Kyle & Agarwal, Puneet & Zhuang, Jun, 2021. "Technology adoption for airport security: Modeling public disclosure and secrecy in an attacker-defender game," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    4. Nie, Xiaofeng, 2019. "The impact of conditional dependence on checked baggage screening," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(3), pages 883-893.
    5. Yan, Xihong & Ren, Xiaorong & Nie, Xiaofeng, 2022. "A budget allocation model for domestic airport network protection," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    6. Aniruddha Bagchi & Jomon Aliyas Paul, 2014. "Optimal Allocation of Resources in Airport Security: Profiling vs. Screening," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(2), pages 219-233, April.
    7. Nie, Xiaofeng & Parab, Gautam & Batta, Rajan & Lin, Li, 2012. "Simulation-based Selectee Lane queueing design for passenger checkpoint screening," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 146-155.
    8. Stotz, Tamara & Bearth, Angela & Ghelfi, Signe Maria & Siegrist, Michael, 2022. "The perceived costs and benefits that drive the acceptability of risk-based security screenings at airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    9. Pourakbar, M. & Zuidwijk, R.A., 2018. "The role of customs in securing containerized global supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(1), pages 331-340.
    10. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & Manel Baucells & Vicki M. Bier & David Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2010. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 327-330, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & Kevin F. McCardle & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2007. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 173-175, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2008. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 173-176, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2009. "From the Editors ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 199-201, December.
    11. David Anderson, 2021. "Optimising multi-layered security screening," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 249-273, December.
    12. Kjell Hausken & Jun Zhuang, 2011. "Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T -Period Game," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 46-70, March.
    13. Abel Brodeur, 2018. "The Effect of Terrorism on Employment and Consumer Sentiment: Evidence from Successful and Failed Terror Attacks," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 246-282, October.
    14. Baycik, N. Orkun & Sharkey, Thomas C. & Rainwater, Chase E., 2020. "A Markov Decision Process approach for balancing intelligence and interdiction operations in city-level drug trafficking enforcement," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    15. K Hausken & G Levitin, 2010. "Defence of homogeneous parallel multi-state systems subject to two sequential attacks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(3), pages 171-183, September.
    16. Jason R. W. Merrick & Laura A. McLay, 2010. "Is Screening Cargo Containers for Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 155-171, June.
    17. Stewart, Mark G., 2010. "Risk-informed decision support for assessing the costs and benefits of counter-terrorism protective measures for infrastructure," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 29-40.
    18. David Madigan & Sushil Mittal & Fred Roberts, 2011. "Efficient sequential decision‐making algorithms for container inspection operations," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(7), pages 637-654, October.
    19. Eswaran, Mukesh, 2018. "Decentralized Terrorism and Social Identity," Microeconomics.ca working papers tina_marandola-2018-4, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 06 Jun 2018.
    20. Qianmei Feng, 2007. "On Determining Specifications and Selections of Alternative Technologies for Airport Checked‐Baggage Security Screening," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1299-1310, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jtrsec:v:11:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s12198-018-0196-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.