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How do output growth-rate distributions look like? Some cross-country, time-series evidence

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  • G. Fagiolo
  • M. Napoletano
  • A. Roventini

Abstract

This paper investigates the statistical properties of within-country gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial production (IP) growth-rate distributions. Many empirical contributions have recently pointed out that cross-section growth rates of firms, industries and countries all follow Laplace distributions. In this work, we test whether also within-country, time-series GDP and IP growth rates can be approximated by tent-shaped distributions. We fit output growth rates with the exponential-power (Subbotin) family of densities, which includes as particular cases both Gaussian and Laplace distributions. We find that, for a large number of OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries including the US, both GDP and IP growth rates are Laplace distributed. Moreover, we show that fat-tailed distributions robustly emerge even after controlling for outliers, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. Copyright EDP Sciences/Società Italiana di Fisica/Springer-Verlag 2007

Suggested Citation

  • G. Fagiolo & M. Napoletano & A. Roventini, 2007. "How do output growth-rate distributions look like? Some cross-country, time-series evidence," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 57(2), pages 205-211, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurphb:v:57:y:2007:i:2:p:205-211
    DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2007-00153-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Corrado Di Guilmi & Mauro Gallegati & Edoardo Gaffeo, 2003. "Power Law Scaling in the World Income Distribution," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(6), pages 1-7.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alexander Hempfing, 2019. "What’s left after the hype? An empirical approach comparing the distributional properties of traditional and virtual currency exchange rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Reiner Franke, 2015. "How Fat-Tailed is US Output Growth?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 213-242, May.
    4. Manas, Arnaud, 2009. "French butchers don't do quantum physics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 101-106, May.
    5. Peña, Guillermo & Puente-Ajovín, Miguel & Ramos, Arturo & Sanz-Gracia, Fernando, 2022. "Log-growth rates of CO2: An empirical analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).
    6. Hernan Mondani, 2019. "Sector, industry and inter-organizational movement statistics in the Stockholm Region: informing organizational growth models," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 735-755, March.
    7. Williams, Michael A. & Baek, Grace & Li, Yiyang & Park, Leslie Y. & Zhao, Wei, 2017. "Global evidence on the distribution of GDP growth rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 750-758.

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