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Regime shifts in the Danish term structure of interest rates

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Author Info
Tom Engsted () (Department of Finance, Aarhus School of Business, Fuglesangs allÊ 4, DK-8210 Aarhus V., Denmark)
Ken Nyholm () (Department of Finance, Aarhus School of Business, Fuglesangs allÊ 4, DK-8210 Aarhus V., Denmark)

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Abstract

Within a bivariate VAR model allowing for two-state Markov regime switching we test and evaluate the Expectations Theory (ET) of the term structure using Danish 1- and 3-months interest rates covering the period 1976-1997. A regime-shift approach is used in order to account for the change in monetary policy and the 1992-93 exchange rate crises that occured during this period. The basic findings are that these episodes did change the term structure, and, although we do find departures from the ET, several of the implications of the theory are consistent with the data, especially in the later part of the sample.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-13
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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:25:y:2000:i:1:p:1-13

Note: received: June 1997/Final version received: March 1998
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Related research
Keywords: Expectations hypothesis; regime switching;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. PeterTillmann, 2004. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 53, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. W.A. Bruinshoofd & B. Candelon, 2004. "Nonlinear monetary policy in europe: fact or myth?," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 758, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Peter Tillmann, 2003. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse27_2003, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Les Oxley & Marco Reale & Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson, 2008. "Constructing Structural VAR Models with Conditional Independence Graphs," Working Papers in Economics 08/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Magdalena Massot Perelló & Juan M. Nave Pineda, 2003. "La hipótesis de las expectativas en el largo plazo: evidencia en el mercado español de deuda pública," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(3), pages 533-564, September. [Downloadable!]
  6. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & Benjamin M. Tabak?, 2007. "Characterizing The Brazilian Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 108, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. B. Candelon & H. Lütkepohl, . "On the Reliability of Chow Type Test for Parameter Constancy in Multivariate Dynamic Models," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2000-95, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
    Other versions:
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