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A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850

Author

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  • Miikka Voutilainen

    (University of Jyvaskyla)

  • Jouni Helske

    (University of Jyvaskyla
    Linköping University, Campus Norrköping)

  • Harri Högmander

    (University of Jyvaskyla)

Abstract

This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finland’s population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual population series of such length available.

Suggested Citation

  • Miikka Voutilainen & Jouni Helske & Harri Högmander, 2020. "A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 1171-1192, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:57:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s13524-020-00889-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00889-1
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    Cited by:

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    2. Miikka Voutilainen, 2022. "Income inequality and famine mortality: Evidence from the Finnish famine of the 1860s," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(2), pages 503-529, May.

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