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Attribution of current trends in streamflow to climate change for 12 Central Asian catchments

Author

Listed:
  • Iulii Didovets

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Climate Resilience)

  • Valentina Krysanova

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Climate Resilience)

  • Aliya Nurbatsina

    (Institute of Geography and Water Security Science, Laboratory of Water Resources)

  • Bijan Fallah

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Climate Resilience)

  • Viktoriya Krylova

    (Kazakh-German University, Center for Natural Resources and Sustainability)

  • Assel Saparova

    (Institute of Geography and Water Security Science, Laboratory of Water Resources)

  • Jafar Niyazov

    (Institute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology, Academy of Sciences, Climatology and Glaciology Lab.)

  • Olga Kalashnikova

    (Central-Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences)

  • Fred Fokko Hattermann

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Climate Resilience)

Abstract

This study investigates the attribution of climate change to trends in river discharge during six decades from 1955 until 2014 in 12 selected river catchments across six Central Asian countries located upstream of the main rivers. For this purpose, the semi-distributed eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was firstly calibrated and validated for all study catchments. Attributing climate change to streamflow simulation trends was forced by factual (reanalysis) and counterfactual climate data (assuming the absence of anthropogenic influence) proposed in the framework of the ISIMIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) or ESM without anthropogenic forcing that were firstly tested and then compared. The trend analysis was performed for three variables: mean annual discharge and high flow (Q5) and low flow (Q95) indices. The results show that trends in the annual and seasonal discharge could be attributed to climate change for some of the studied catchments. In the three northern catchments (Derkul, Shagan, and Tobol), there are positive trends, and in two catchments (Sarysu and Kafirnigan), there are negative streamflow trends under the factual climate, which could be attributed to climate change. Also, our analysis shows that the average level of discharge in Murghab has increased during the historical study period due to climate change, despite the overall decreasing trend during this period. In addition, the study reveals a clear signal of shifting spring streamflow peaks in all catchments across the study area.

Suggested Citation

  • Iulii Didovets & Valentina Krysanova & Aliya Nurbatsina & Bijan Fallah & Viktoriya Krylova & Assel Saparova & Jafar Niyazov & Olga Kalashnikova & Fred Fokko Hattermann, 2024. "Attribution of current trends in streamflow to climate change for 12 Central Asian catchments," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03673-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03673-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander Gelfan & Andrey Kalugin & Inna Krylenko, 2023. "Detection, attribution, and specifying mechanisms of hydrological changes in geographically different river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Tobias Siegfried & Thomas Bernauer & Renaud Guiennet & Scott Sellars & Andrew Robertson & Justin Mankin & Peter Bauer-Gottwein & Andrey Yakovlev, 2012. "Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 881-899, June.
    3. Annina Sorg & Tobias Bolch & Markus Stoffel & Olga Solomina & Martin Beniston, 2012. "Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia)," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(10), pages 725-731, October.
    4. Jiabo Yin & Pierre Gentine & Sha Zhou & Sylvia C. Sullivan & Ren Wang & Yao Zhang & Shenglian Guo, 2018. "Large increase in global storm runoff extremes driven by climate and anthropogenic changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
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