IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v174y2022i1d10.1007_s10584-022-03434-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The summer cooling effect under the projected restoration of Aral Sea in Central Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Huili He

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Atmospheric Science and Remote Sensing College, Wuxi University
    Ghent University
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Rafiq Hamdi

    (Royal Meteorological Institute
    Ghent University)

  • Geping Luo

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    CAS Research Centre for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia)

  • Peng Cai

    (Atmospheric Science and Remote Sensing College, Wuxi University)

  • Xiuliang Yuan

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Miao Zhang

    (Shanxi Normal University)

  • Piet Termonia

    (Royal Meteorological Institute
    Ghent University)

  • Philippe Maeyer

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Ghent University
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-Information)

  • Alishir Kurban

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    CAS Research Centre for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia)

Abstract

The Aral Sea once covered 68 × 103 km2, but lost 90% of its area during the last decades due to unreasonable water resources utilization. Fortunately, some measures to save the Aral Sea have been proposed. Regional climate model ALARO-SURFEX was applied in dynamic downscaling simulations to quantify the climatic effects generated by increasing greenhousegas (GHG) emissions and the Aral Sea restoration. The results show that performance of CNRM-CM5 dynamically downscaled by ALARO-SURFEX in reproducing 2-m temperature is reliable and better than outputs of 17 global climate models. If the Aral Sea kept the almost dry-up state (8.6 × 103 km2) in the future (2021–2050), the Aral Sea region will suffer a warmer summer than in historical period. Daily maximum (T2max), mean (T2avg), and minimum (T2min) temperature will rise by 0.91 °C, 1.06 °C, and 1.22 °C, respectively, and reduce diurnal temperature range (DTR) by 0.31 °C. If the Aral Sea could recover to twice its current area (17.2 × 103 km2), the T2max and T2avg (T2min) over the ambient region of Aral Sea (350 km) will reduce (increase) by 1.54 and 1.10 °C (1.16 °C), respectively, which can dampen the DTR by 2.4 °C. The cooling effect induced by the projected Aral Sea restoration is mainly contributed by enhanced latent heat. While the warming effect caused by GHG emissions increase is primarily attributed to increased incoming longwave radiation. This study quantified the summer cooling effect under the projected restoration of Aral Sea, which could provide scientific reference in working out the sustainable development strategies under the warming threat in Central Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Huili He & Rafiq Hamdi & Geping Luo & Peng Cai & Xiuliang Yuan & Miao Zhang & Piet Termonia & Philippe Maeyer & Alishir Kurban, 2022. "The summer cooling effect under the projected restoration of Aral Sea in Central Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:174:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03434-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03434-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-022-03434-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-022-03434-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tobias Siegfried & Thomas Bernauer & Renaud Guiennet & Scott Sellars & Andrew Robertson & Justin Mankin & Peter Bauer-Gottwein & Andrey Yakovlev, 2012. "Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 881-899, June.
    2. Annina Sorg & Tobias Bolch & Markus Stoffel & Olga Solomina & Martin Beniston, 2012. "Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia)," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(10), pages 725-731, October.
    3. Xuezhen Zhang & Miao He & Mengxin Bai & Quansheng Ge, 2021. "Meteorological drought and its large-scale climate patterns in each season in Central Asia from 1901 to 2015," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Peng Cai & Chaofan Li & Geping Luo & Chi Zhang & Friday Uchenna Ochege & Steven Caluwaerts & Lesley De Cruz & Rozemien De Troch & Sara Top & Piet Termonia & Philippe De Maeyer, 2020. "The Responses of the Ecosystems in the Tianshan North Slope under Multiple Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios in the Middle of the 21st Century," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Zhi & Fang, Gonghuan & Chen, Yaning & Duan, Weili & Mukanov, Yerbolat, 2020. "Agricultural water demands in Central Asia under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    2. Shan Zou & Abuduwaili Jilili & Weili Duan & Philippe De Maeyer & Tim Van de Voorde, 2019. "Human and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources in the Syr Darya River Basin, Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, May.
    3. Chaofan Li & Qifei Han & Geping Luo & Chengyi Zhao & Shoubo Li & Yuangang Wang & Dongsheng Yu, 2018. "Effects of Cropland Conversion and Climate Change on Agrosystem Carbon Balance of China’s Dryland: A Typical Watershed Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, November.
    4. Wanlu Liu & Lulu Liu & Jiangbo Gao, 2020. "Adapting to climate change: gaps and strategies for Central Asia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 1439-1459, December.
    5. Iulii Didovets & Valentina Krysanova & Aliya Nurbatsina & Bijan Fallah & Viktoriya Krylova & Assel Saparova & Jafar Niyazov & Olga Kalashnikova & Fred Fokko Hattermann, 2024. "Attribution of current trends in streamflow to climate change for 12 Central Asian catchments," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Christopher White & Trevor Tanton & David Rycroft, 2014. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5267-5281, December.
    7. R. Bryson Touchstone & Kathleen Sherman-Morris, 2016. "Vulnerability to prolonged cold: a case study of the Zeravshan Valley of Tajikistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(2), pages 1279-1300, September.
    8. Bhaduri, Anik & Djanibekov, Nodir, 2015. "Adoption of Water-Efficient Technology: Role of Water Price Flexibility, Tenure Uncerntainty and Production Targets in Uzbekistan," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211336, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Ruan, Hongwei & Yu, Jingjie & Wang, Ping & Hao, Lingang & Wang, Zhenlong, 2023. "Relieving water stress by optimizing crop structure is a practicable approach in arid transboundary rivers of Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    10. Steven G. Pueppke & Margulan K. Iklasov & Volker Beckmann & Sabir T. Nurtazin & Niels Thevs & Sayat Sharakhmetov & Buho Hoshino, 2018. "Challenges for Sustainable Use of the Fish Resources from Lake Balkhash, a Fragile Lake in an Arid Ecosystem," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, April.
    11. Peña‐Guerrero, Mayra Daniela & Umirbekov, Atabek & Tarasova, Larisa & Müller, Daniel, 2022. "Comparing the performance of high‐resolution global precipitation products across topographic and climatic gradients of Central Asia," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 42(11), pages 5554-5569.
    12. Xiangyao Meng & Yongqiang Liu & Yan Qin & Weiping Wang & Mengxiao Zhang & Kun Zhang, 2022. "Adaptability of MODIS Daily Cloud-Free Snow Cover 500 m Dataset over China in Hutubi River Basin Based on Snowmelt Runoff Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Yu, Yang & Yu, Ruide & Chen, Xi & Yu, Guoan & Gan, Miao & Disse, Markus, 2017. "Agricultural water allocation strategies along the oasis of Tarim River in Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 24-36.
    14. Joanna Wicher-Dysarz & Tomasz Dysarz & Joanna Jaskuła, 2022. "Uncertainty in Determination of Meteorological Drought Zones Based on Standardized Precipitation Index in the Territory of Poland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-18, November.
    15. Olivier Damette & Stephane Goutte & Qing Pei, 2020. "Climate and nomadic migration in a nonlinear world: evidence of the historical China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2055-2071, December.
    16. Mengru Wei & Zhe Yuan & Jijun Xu & Mengqi Shi & Xin Wen, 2022. "Attribution Assessment and Prediction of Runoff Change in the Han River Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-22, February.
    17. Stefanie Christmann & Aden Aw-Hassan, 2015. "A participatory method to enhance the collective ability to adapt to rapid glacier loss: the case of mountain communities in Tajikistan," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 267-282, November.
    18. Gang Deng & Zhiguang Tang & Guojie Hu & Jingwen Wang & Guoqing Sang & Jia Li, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Snowline Altitude and Their Responses to Climate Change in the Tienshan Mountains, Central Asia, during 2001–2019," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-21, April.
    19. Michel Wortmann & Doris Duethmann & Christoph Menz & Tobias Bolch & Shaochun Huang & Jiang Tong & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz & Valentina Krysanova, 2022. "Projected climate change and its impacts on glaciers and water resources in the headwaters of the Tarim River, NW China/Kyrgyzstan," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-24, April.
    20. Olivier Damette & Stephane Goutte & Qing Pei, 2020. "Climate and nomadic migration in a nonlinear world: evidence of the historical China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2055-2071, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:174:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03434-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.